In December, the sale of new apartments remained stable across most major markets in Poland compared to the previous month. However, sales declined in Kraków and Warsaw while increasing in Gdańsk, Łódź, Poznań, and Wrocław, according to the Housing Price Barometer by Tabelaofert.pl. Newly listed apartments were significantly cheaper than the market average for their respective cities. With a high supply of housing, buyers can still benefit from price discounts, though these discounts are expected to gradually diminish over the next six to nine months.
The barometer reveals that November and December were challenging months for developers but favorable for buyers. Starting January, apartment sales are expected to slowly pick up.
“The end of 2024 is a buyer’s market—not only is there a wide selection of properties to choose from, but buyers can also negotiate attractive discounts, sometimes exceeding 10%,” says Robert Chojnacki, founder of the housing portal Tabelaofert.pl, in an interview with Newseria.
This buyer-friendly trend is expected to continue for at least several more months, driven by the high supply of apartments.
“We estimate that it will take six to nine months for buyers to absorb this surplus in the housing market. By the end of 2025, it’s difficult to make precise predictions, but we expect stabilization. Prices are unlikely to rise significantly, but the level of discounts will decrease as the available inventory shrinks,” Chojnacki predicts.
Developers Struggle with Oversupply and Financing
Developers are not only competing for buyers but also seeking bank financing, which depends on achieving a certain level of pre-sales. Faster pre-sales translate into quicker access to construction funds. If sales are sluggish, developers often pause new projects, leading to the attractive pricing of newly launched properties.
The December barometer indicates that new listings are notably cheaper, with two-thirds of new apartments priced below the market average for their respective cities. Among the nearly 46,000 apartments analyzed, developers reduced prices for about 14,500 units. Meanwhile, prices increased for over 12,500 apartments, mainly in projects where pre-sales targets had already been met.
Long-Term Pricing Trends: Discounts Likely to Shrink
Chojnacki warns against expecting deep long-term price drops, citing two key factors:
- Increased Construction Costs: On August 1, 2024, new technical standards for construction came into effect, raising the cost of building new apartments. To avoid these higher costs, developers rushed to complete projects under the old standards before the deadline. Projects launching in 2025 will reflect the higher construction costs.
- Limited Discounts on New Projects: Current discounts are primarily offered on projects contracted 2–2.5 years ago, when construction costs were lower. For new investments, discounts are smaller as developers must account for today’s significantly higher construction costs, even though housing prices have not increased accordingly.
Increased Buyer Activity Expected in 2025
Market experts anticipate increased buyer activity in the coming months. This shift is partially driven by the government’s December announcement that there will be no direct subsidy program for mortgages. Although alternative support tools for borrowers are expected to be introduced in Q1 2025, many buyers are likely to act before such measures are implemented.
A growing trend is the search for more affordable options, particularly in suburban areas surrounding major cities, where property prices are lower. In these “suburban rings,” sales remained stable in November, even as urban sales fell by 24%.
Looking Ahead: Potential Price Increases Post-2025
Chojnacki notes that the housing market outlook for 2026 will depend heavily on political decisions. A notable factor is the expected introduction of the “shelter law,” which will mandate certain shelter provisions in multi-family housing, likely increasing construction costs.
“This will unfortunately push up housing prices. However, I don’t expect real price growth over the next decade. If prices do rise, it will likely be in line with or below the rate of inflation,” Chojnacki concludes.
Despite current discounts and a buyer-friendly market, the high construction costs and anticipated regulatory changes may limit price reductions in the long term, potentially stabilizing or even slightly increasing housing prices in the years to come.
