The BIK Mortgage Loan Demand Index revealed a 45.4% year-on-year decrease in inquiries for mortgage loans in December 2024. This means that, on a per-business-day basis, banks and credit unions (SKOKs) sent mortgage loan inquiries to BIK for amounts that were 45.4% lower than in December 2023.
In December 2024, a total of 26,030 people applied for a mortgage loan, compared to 46,310 a year earlier, reflecting a 43.8% year-on-year drop. This decline also deepened on a monthly basis, with 3.4% fewer applicants compared to November 2024.
The average requested mortgage loan value in December 2024 was 444,900 PLN, which was 2.2% higher than in December 2023 and 2.0% higher than in November 2024.
Effects of the “Safe Credit 2%” Program Fade
“As I’ve previously noted, the BIK Mortgage Loan Demand Index has shown negative readings for several consecutive months. The low base effect from the first half of 2023 has ended, and current data is being compared to the high base of the second half of 2023, which was stimulated by the ‘Safe Credit 2%’ Program. Since December 2023 marked the final month for submitting applications under this program, we can expect the Index to increase in the coming months of 2025 as we compare data to periods when loans were granted solely under market conditions,”
explained Professor Waldemar Rogowski, Chief Analyst of the BIK Group.
Despite a brief period of optimism in October 2024, when the number of applicants increased month-over-month, the trend reversed in November and continued to deteriorate in December, with declines in both year-on-year and month-on-month terms.
Waiting for Lower Prices or New Support Programs
The current decline in mortgage loan demand may be linked to developments in the real estate market.
“With an increasing number of housing offers and declining sales, some potential borrowers might be postponing property purchases—and therefore mortgage applications—in anticipation of price reductions. Others might be waiting for the introduction of a new borrower support program,”
Rogowski added.
Record-High Average Loan Amounts
One factor partially offsetting the drop in the number of applicants is the increase in the average value of requested loans. In December 2024, the average mortgage loan application was for 444,900 PLN, the highest amount recorded in the Index’s history.
“This may be due to higher-income individuals purchasing more expensive properties and applying for larger mortgage loans,”
Rogowski noted.
Outlook for 2025
The mortgage loan market faces a challenging start to 2025. With the end of the “Safe Credit 2%” Program and potential new support measures on the horizon, borrower behavior may shift in the coming months. However, until then, the market is expected to remain influenced by cautious consumer sentiment and ongoing fluctuations in housing demand and supply.
Source: ManagerPlus.pl
