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2024: A Year of Dynamic Growth for Housing Markets in Poland

REAL ESTATE2024: A Year of Dynamic Growth for Housing Markets in Poland

The year 2024 marked a dynamic recovery for property developers across Poland’s seven main housing markets. Kraków saw its supply increase by over 100%, reaching 8.7 thousand units. Other cities, including Łódź, Poznań, and Katowice, also closed the year with record-breaking offerings. Meanwhile, Warsaw and the Tricity led in sales. The surge in supply brought slight price adjustments, with end-of-year decreases of around 1% in all major markets. On an annual basis, the growth of average prices slowed significantly, with Łódź being the only city to register a double-digit increase of 15% year-on-year.


Stable Year-End and Record Supply Levels

For developers operating in Poland’s seven largest housing markets (Katowice, Kraków, Łódź, Poznań, Tricity, Warsaw, and Wrocław), Q4 2024 was notably successful. After the summer, monthly new home sales stabilized at 3.2–3.3 thousand units and maintained this pace through December. Although the total number of units sold between October and December fell just shy of 10,000, this result stands solidly within the mid-range of the past three years’ quarterly rankings.

Annual sales for 2024 exceeded 37,000 units across key markets, a 26% decline from 2023.

“It’s important to remember that 2023 was heavily influenced by the BK 2% program and relaxed creditworthiness buffers. In 2024, the absence of similar incentives significantly impacted market dynamics. Many potential buyers, lacking favorable financial conditions and facing stricter credit requirements, postponed property purchases. Consequently, the decline in sales was not surprising but rather a natural outcome of reduced systemic support and tougher economic conditions,”
noted Marcin Krasoń, a housing market expert at Otodom Analytics.

Despite these challenges, developers launched 53.3 thousand new units across the seven main markets in 2024—30% more than in 2023 and 22% more than two years ago. Over 55% of these units were introduced in the first half of the year. In the third and fourth quarters, new launches stabilized at around 12,000 units per quarter. This influx of supply, combined with weaker demand, led to a significant rise in availability. By the end of 2024, 55.8 thousand developer-owned units were available, compared to just over 35 thousand at the end of 2023.


Sales Leaders

Warsaw has long dominated in developer sales, accounting for roughly one-third of transactions across the seven key markets. This trend continued in 2024, with developers in the capital selling 12,000 units, or 32% of the total market share.

Tricity claimed the second spot, with over 5.2 thousand units sold, narrowly surpassing Wrocław, where sales were approximately 60 units fewer. Surprisingly, Kraków, typically a strong performer, ranked fourth. The city experienced a 42% drop in sales, losing its consistent second-place position behind Warsaw.


Cities with the Largest Housing Supply

2024 marked a period of recovery in housing supply following significant declines in 2023, driven in part by the BK 2% program. Across all seven markets, the number of newly introduced units outpaced sales, with Kraków recording the largest gap at 74%. Developers in the city expanded their offerings dramatically, achieving a supply of 8.7 thousand units—a twofold increase from the previous year—placing Kraków second only to Warsaw.

Łódź, historically not a leading market, surprised with the third-largest supply at approximately 8.5 thousand units, despite ranking sixth in sales. Wrocław followed closely, where the number of new units exceeded demand by 62%, ending the year with 7.5 thousand available units.

Poznań also reached record levels, closing 2024 with over 7,000 units on offer. Katowice, the smallest of the seven markets analyzed, entered 2025 with 4.5 thousand available units, significantly higher than its historical range of 3–3.5 thousand over the past two years.

Although some fear this level of supply might signal oversaturation in Poland’s largest cities, most markets are in a relatively balanced position. Tricity, Warsaw, and Wrocław have a safe sell-off period of 4–6 quarters, while Kraków and Poznań require slightly longer. Katowice and Łódź, however, show potential signs of oversupply, with sell-off periods of 11 and 9 quarters, respectively.


By the end of December, all seven major markets experienced slight price corrections, with average per-square-meter prices falling by no more than 1%. Poznań and Tricity saw the largest monthly declines at 0.8%. On an annual basis, price growth slowed significantly compared to mid-2024, when it exceeded 10% year-on-year in most cities. By year-end, only Łódź posted double-digit growth (+15% y/y). Poznań and Tricity saw modest increases of less than 2%, while Katowice, Warsaw, Kraków, and Wrocław recorded growth rates between 5% and 9.6%.


Outlook for 2025

Could 2025 bring price declines? Experts do not anticipate long-term reductions unless triggered by unforeseen macroeconomic events.

“2024 presented developers with numerous challenges, many of which may persist in 2025. Market conditions and the introduction of a new housing program force developers to make tough choices: whether to continue new investments or scale back supply in response to high inventory levels and market uncertainty. Their decisions will become clearer in the first months of 2025. For now, however, there are no indications of sustained price decreases,”
concluded Katarzyna Kuniewicz, Market Research Director at Otodom Analytics.


Source: ManagerPlus.pl

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