By 2035, the workforce in Poland is expected to shrink by 2.1 million people, according to an analysis by the Polish Economic Institute. Foreign workers could partially fill this gap, but employers are urging the government to implement regulations that make Poland a more attractive destination for economic migrants and streamline administrative procedures. New regulations proposed by the Ministry of Labor, set to take effect in 2025, aim to speed up and improve the efficiency of administrative processes related to employing foreigners.
Workforce Challenges in Poland
“Today, Poland has a historically low unemployment rate and one of the lowest levels of underutilized labor potential in Europe—only about 6% of the working-age population is unemployed, compared to the European average of over 12%. In short, we have no additional pool of workers to draw from,” says Wojciech Ratajczyk, CEO of Trenkwalder Polska, in an interview with Newseria.
According to the Central Statistical Office, the unemployment rate stood at 5% in November 2024, with 774,500 people unemployed, a 1.2% increase from the previous month. The Confederation Lewiatan attributes the long-term decline in unemployment primarily to demographic changes rather than increased labor demand.
Demographic Trends and Industry Impact
Over the next decade, Poland’s labor market will face a shortage of over 2 million workers, particularly in industries such as manufacturing, construction, healthcare, and education. “Each year, the number of people leaving the workforce surpasses those entering it,” notes Ratajczyk.
A report by the Polish Economic Institute estimates that the working population in Poland will decline by 2.1 million by 2035, representing a 12.6% drop from current employment levels. This decline is driven by the retirement of workers aged 50–59/64 and the entry of smaller, younger age groups into the workforce. Assuming the retirement age remains unchanged, 3.8 million workers will leave the labor market by 2035, while only 1.7 million new entrants are expected.
Sectors such as education and healthcare are projected to face the largest workforce shortages, with employment potentially dropping by 29% and 23%, respectively. Manufacturing, too, will be significantly affected, with automation playing a growing role in reducing labor demand. By 2035, the decline in manufacturing employment alone could reduce Poland’s GDP by 6–8%.
“Poland has one of the lowest levels of industrial automation, with just over 50 robots per 10,000 jobs, compared to over 250 in Germany. This automation gap could leave the manufacturing sector short of 500,000 to 1 million workers within a decade,” predicts Ratajczyk.
The Role of Foreign Workers
Foreign workers are already helping to mitigate Poland’s labor shortage. As of November 2024, over 1.2 million foreigners were registered for pension and disability insurance, with the majority coming from Ukraine (nearly 800,000), Belarus (136,000), and Georgia (27,000). However, the growth in the number of foreign workers has slowed significantly—from 20–30% annually in 2020–2021 to just 5–6% in recent years.
The National Employment Action Plan for 2024–2026, adopted in December, highlights the increasing inflow of economic migrants as a key challenge for Poland’s labor market. While foreign workers support economic development, the plan also acknowledges the risks of exploitation and unfair competition, emphasizing the need for a responsible migration policy.
Streamlining Procedures and Legal Reforms
Employers frequently cite bureaucracy and lengthy processing times for work permits as major obstacles to hiring foreign workers. Current procedures for non-EU citizens can take three to six months. The Forum for Civic Development has criticized existing regulations and administrative practices as outdated and inconsistent, often failing to address modern labor market needs.
In October 2024, the government presented a migration strategy aimed at addressing these issues. However, experts warn that an overly strong focus on security could limit migration and its positive effects on the labor market. “The proposed migration strategy contradicts the labor market’s needs and employers’ expectations,” Ratajczyk emphasizes. Employers are calling for faster processing times, an expanded list of countries eligible for simplified procedures, and increased access to workers from regions such as the Philippines and South America.
The government plans to analyze the list of countries eligible for simplified work declaration procedures by 2025. Currently, these include Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, and Armenia. Additionally, a new law adopted in December introduces measures to digitize work permit systems and establish a registry of employment contracts, aiming to improve the speed and efficiency of administrative processes. Employers will be required to submit copies of contracts with foreign workers to relevant authorities, and penalties for illegal employment will be increased, with fines ranging from PLN 3,000 to PLN 50,000 per violation.
Critically, provisions requiring mandatory employment contracts for foreign workers were removed from the bill after pushback from businesses. However, Trenkwalder Polska warns that stricter penalties and unannounced inspections under the new regulations could make it more challenging for employers to hire foreign workers.
As Poland faces a shrinking labor force, the balance between regulatory oversight and market flexibility will be crucial in addressing long-term workforce challenges.
