Preliminary estimates of the November CPI inflation have been announced as 4.6 percent year on year (YOY), indicating a decrease from the level of 5.0 percent YOY that was observed in October. On a monthly basis, the index was 0.4 percent month on month (MOM). These two initial estimates are identical with market consensus.
Market expectations suggest that the peak of inflation should be seen around the end of the first quarter of 2025. Due to the planned extension of protective measures in the energy market for a further 9 months, the market expects the “flattening” of the inflation peak. By spring 2025, there should be a scope to return to interest rate cuts.
Author: Jan Karczewski, Director of Strategic Clients at Michael / Ström Dom Maklerski.
Source: https://ceo.com.pl/powrot-do-obnizek-stop-procentowych-mozliwy-na-wiosne-38041
