During the first eleven months of this year, 26% fewer apartments were sold in the seven major markets in Poland compared to the same period last year. November is yet another sequential month in which current supply exceeded demand. As a result, at the beginning of December, the number of apartments offered by developers reached a record level of 56,000 units. Katarzyna Kuniewicz from Otodom Analytics comments on the current situation on the developer’s market.
The dramatic increase in supply in November is primarily due to an increase of almost 2,000 in current supply over existing sales. Moreover, apartments that were classified as sold in previous Otodom Analytics statistics have returned to the supply pool. However, it is worth noting that their scale in November was no different from the average in previous months. The cumulative effect of these changes on the largest housing markets in Poland, namely in Katowice, Krakow, Lodz, Poznan, Tricity, Warsaw, and Wroclaw is the highest level of apartments offered by developers in four years.
Despite the increase in the number of apartments offered, the rate of liquidation of the physical stock of housing improved again and reached 5.5 quarters at the end of November. By comparison, a score of 4-5 quarters is said to characterize a balanced market.
The improvement in this indicator was due not only to the relatively good November sales, but above all to the aggregate three-month volume of transactions, which exceeded 10,000 units sold. We recorded a comparable accumulated sales result in Otodom Analytics in April 2024, the last month in which the 2% Safe Credit had an impact on the housing market, says Katarzyna Kuniewicz, Research Director at Otodom Analytics.
Sales in Lodz similar to Tricity
After two months of sales at the level of 1.1-1.2 thousand apartments, the last four weeks were slightly worse for developers building in Warsaw. In November, less than a thousand apartments were sold in the capital, 15% less than a month earlier and 20% less than a year ago. Despite this, Warsaw remains the largest housing market in Poland.
In November, the second-place was Wroclaw with preliminary sales of 561 units, 27% more than in October, but 7% less than a year ago. As for developer’s apartments, 476 units were sold in Krakow, 424 in Poznan. Intriguingly, there was an equal sales record in Lodz and Tricity, with each city selling 398 units. The last time that Lodz sold the same or more than Tricity was in December 2021. The sales comparison again looks leanest in Katowice, with 159 apartments sold, 31% less than a year ago.
Krakow chasing the offer in Lodz
Last month, the most, over 2.1 thousand new apartments hit the Warsaw offer. No other city has reached 1000 new offers. Poznan was the closest with 854 new apartments, followed by Krakow (632). There were between 450 and 500 introductions in Lodz, Wroclaw, and Katowice, and the least this time in the Tricity, only 305.
When analyzing the size of the offer, it is worth noting that the number of apartments available in Krakow may soon exceed the offer in Lodz. At the end of November, it was 8.2 and 8.5 thousand apartments respectively. Half a year ago, the difference between these cities was over 2.5 thousand apartments.
Price correction
Analysis of apartment sales on the largest markets in recent months indicates both the maintenance of post-holiday optimism in the market and growing uncertainty that cools down the willingness of clients of development companies to finalize transactions.
On most of the analyzed markets, the average prices of apartments offered in November did not increase, but there was a slight correction. These changes are not only characteristic of the end of the year but may also be a new trend. However, we will have to wait until February 2025 to answer this question, concludes Katarzyna Kuniewicz, Director of Research at Otodom Analytics.
Source: https://ceo.com.pl/rekordowa-liczba-ofert-sprzedaz-mieszkan-mniejsza-o-26-i-korekty-cen-listopad-na-rynku-deweloperskim-35242
