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Global Reverse Mortgage Market Forecasted to Double to $50 Billion Annually by 2033, Says EY and EPPARG Report

REAL ESTATEGlobal Reverse Mortgage Market Forecasted to Double to $50 Billion Annually by 2033, Says EY and EPPARG Report

From the latest report published by the advisory firm Ernst & Young (EY) and the European Pensions and Property Asset Group (EPPARG), it is evident that within the next decade, the global reverse mortgage market will double in size, and the value of funds released through this service will increase to $50 billion annually.[1] Experts from EY and EPPARG predict that the main drivers for the dynamic development of the market will not only be demographic changes but also high inflation and the worsening financial situation of the elderly.[2]

EY and EPPARG are publishing the “Global Equity Release Roundtable” report for the second time, which analyzes data from 13 countries around the world covering Europe, North America, and Australia. In some of these countries, equity release products have been available for over 30 years and have established a firm position, while in others, they are just beginning. From the latest EY and EPPARG report, it is evident that annually, seniors worldwide release cash funds worth $17 billion through reverse mortgages, and this number is expected to rise to $50 billion by the year 2033.

Size of individual markets and development forecasts

The most developed reverse mortgage markets globally include the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia. Countries that lead in terms of results and the number of service providers also include Canada, Norway, Sweden, the Netherlands, and Germany. According to estimates from EY and EPPARG, seniors in the USA currently release $7 billion in capital annually through reverse mortgages. Seniors in the United Kingdom release over $4 billion annually, and in Australia, $3 billion. The forecasts for the next ten years are promising. The volumes of funds released through reverse mortgages will increase in the USA to over $12 billion, in the United Kingdom to over $7 billion, and in Australia to $5-6 billion annually. Experts predict that Polish seniors will be releasing funds worth $5 billion annually in ten years (currently, it is $0.1 billion).

– Let’s remember that the Polish market, compared to other countries, is still young. Foreign markets have developed, among other things, thanks to the professionalization of services, high standards of customer service, and access to long-term and secure financing. All these factors can already be observed in Poland, hence the forecasts regarding the development of the domestic market are very optimistic, showing its huge potential. However, fulfilling this forecast requires meeting several conditions, including making the reverse mortgage available in a credit model – says Robert Majkowski, President of the Mortgage Fund DOM and Board Member of EPPARG.

Table

The value of funds released thanks to reverse mortgages (annually in selected countries). Comparison of volumes today and in ten years (in 2033) in billions of dollars. Data based on the latest “Global Equity Release Roundtable 2023” report prepared by EY and EPPARG.

  USA UK Australia France Netherlands Italy Germany Poland
Volume today 7 4 3 0.1 1 0.1 1 0.1
Volume

in 10 years

>12 >7 5-6 >8 >5 >8 >8 >5

Data: EY and EPPARG Report, https://epparg.org/news/global-equity-release-market-forecast-to-hit-usd-50-billion-by-2033/

Globally,

the service varies

In each of the thirteen countries analyzed, the stage of service development is different, as is the number of offered solutions. In most cases, the entities offering reverse mortgages in various models are banks, insurance companies, or securitization firms. The most commonly encountered solution is the reverse mortgage loan (present, among others, in the United Kingdom, the United States, Sweden, Norway, Ireland, or Canada). In other countries, a lifetime annuity is offered (e.g., in Poland and Germany), that is, a reverse mortgage in a sales model. There are also countries (e.g., Spain and France), where both reverse mortgage models (credit and sales) successfully operate.

The lowest age at which a senior can take advantage of a reverse mortgage is 55 years (e.g., in Canada, or the United Kingdom). In most countries, the age limit is 60 years, though in Germany and Spain, it is only 65 years. An interesting comparison found in the EY and EPPARG report concerns forms of contact with seniors for the purpose of service and finalizing agreements. In most countries (including Poland), companies focus on personal contact, although there are countries where most formalities are handled remotely (e.g., in Canada or the Netherlands).

– The biggest barrier to the service’s development, according to EY and EPPARG experts, is still low awareness about the service that is a reverse mortgage. In Poland, the awareness and knowledge of retirees are at a fairly high level, as confirmed by our periodic opinion surveys, however, this awareness is supported. Spontaneously, the majority of seniors do not consider a reverse mortgage as a solution to improve their situation. In our country, the biggest barrier remains the dedicated regulations for this industry, which we have been waiting for over ten years – summarizes Robert Majkowski, President of the Mortgage Fund DOM.

Comments from international experts on the “Global Equity Release Roundtable 2023” report

Steve Kyle, Secretary General of EPPARG

The latest report reaffirms our belief that releasing capital from real estate allows older homeowners to use their own property as an asset that can be liquidated to secure a decent retirement. Raising awareness of this service on the international stage is very important, primarily due to the social and economic benefits it brings.

Ben Grainger, Partner at EY

The growing reverse mortgage market can change the quality of life for thousands of people in retirement. It is extremely positive that we are witnessing such a dynamic change in this market. Unlocking the potential of this market worldwide will require deeper cross-border cooperation, achieved through sharing models and financing sources as well as best practices for customer protection.

Steve Irwin, President of NRMLA in the USA

Real estate is the largest asset owned by seniors worldwide, and remember, the number of older people is still increasing. Releasing capital frozen in real estate is key to a secure retirement. Along with the growth of global markets, proper consumer protection and education must also be an integral part of any product offering.

David Burrowes, Board Member of EPPARG

To unlock capital frozen in real estate, greater customer awareness about the service and the entire market is needed. It’s valuable to build consumer trust through high-quality services, appropriate standards, but also innovations supporting the market.

[1] “Global Equity Release Roundtable 2023” report, published by Ernst & Young and the European Pensions and Property Asset Group (EPPARG). Details: https://epparg.org/news/global-equity-release-market-forecast-to-hit-usd-50-billion-by-2033/

[2] Ibid.

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