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Price Stabilization in Secondary Housing Market Observed in Major Polish Cities

REAL ESTATEPrice Stabilization in Secondary Housing Market Observed in Major Polish Cities

In Warsaw, June brought a long-awaited decrease in the average price per square meter of apartments on the secondary market. Signs of price stabilization are also visible in other metropolises, according to data from GetHome.pl.

– After the expiration of the “Safe Mortgage 2%” support program, sales of used apartments have significantly decreased. However, it would be an exaggeration to say that we are experiencing a sales collapse – says Marek Wielgo, an expert at GetHome.pl.

This impression might stem from the fact that the number of available apartments on the secondary market has increased since the end of the “Safe Mortgage 2%” program. Data from Unirepo.pl, which monitors the 52 largest listing portals, indicates that at the end of May, there were about 145.5 thousand unique apartment listings nationwide. This number has increased by over 18% since December of last year. However, this does not necessarily indicate a sharp decline in buyer interest each month. Simply put, there have been more apartments introduced to the market than there have been buyers.

It appears that after a sales “dip” in January, the number of buyers for second-hand apartments has stabilized in the following months. This is suggested by data from Unirepo.pl, showing that in May, about 35,000 unique apartments were withdrawn from the secondary market. In comparison, during the same period last year, 29,500 unique units were withdrawn, and during the best-selling third quarter of last year, the average was 36,300 per month. In the fourth quarter of last year, the average monthly figure fell to 35,000, similar to the level recorded in May this year. The issue is that we are talking about withdrawals, which in most cases likely resulted from sales. However, some units may have been withdrawn due to a lack of buyers. Additionally, these are nationwide figures, and the situation varies greatly from city to city.

One thing is certain: last year, supply could not keep up with demand, while this year, we are facing the opposite situation. So, have sellers started to lower their prices? Data from GetHome.pl suggests they have, though not immediately. It wasn’t until the second quarter that the first signs of price stabilization appeared. In May, the average price per square meter of secondary market apartments remained stable in Krakow, Poznan, the Tricity, and the cities of the Upper Silesian-Zagłębie Metropolis. The upward trend continued in Lodz, Warsaw, and Wroclaw.

However, in June, the price increases slowed in Lodz (PLN 8.7k/sqm) and Krakow (PLN 17.6k/sqm), where the average price per square meter remained unchanged for the second consecutive month, while in Warsaw (PLN 18.6k/sqm) and the Tricity (PLN 15.3k/sqm), it fell by 1%.

– This is good news for buyers, as it means that sellers are starting to come back to reality. Many likely anticipated a buying frenzy following the introduction of the “#naStart Housing Loan” by banks. However, the government is delaying the decision on the new borrower support program. Meanwhile, due to the supply-side false start, more and more developers are opting for promotional price cuts – comments Marek Wielgo.

Silesia: Used Apartments See Fastest Value Increase

Summarizing the first half of 2024, the greatest price increase was seen in the Upper Silesian-Zagłębie Metropolis, where the price per square meter of second-hand apartments rose by over 9%. According to GetHome.pl data, the average price per square meter in this market has increased by about PLN 800 since the beginning of the year. Lodz and Warsaw are in second and third places, with prices rising by about 7% since the beginning of the year. Krakow and Wroclaw recorded changes of around 6% and 5%. The smallest change was noted in the Tricity (+1%) and Poznan (+3%).

Despite the high price increases for second-hand apartments in the Katowice Agglomeration and Lodz, they remain among the cheapest cities among all metropolises. This is because the market still has a high proportion of apartments in blocks from the PRL era and old tenement houses. At the beginning of the previous decade, mainly such apartments were on the market. Their prices were on average 30% cheaper than newly built ones per square meter. In subsequent years, the share of apartments built after 1989 increased in the market offer, reducing the disparity in the average price per square meter. Currently, the difference is about 20%.

It’s also worth noting that in four metropolises – Warsaw, Krakow, Wroclaw, and the Tricity – the average price per square meter of secondary market apartments is higher than in the primary market.

In the capital of the Lodz voivodeship, prices of apartments in both the primary and secondary markets have increased at a similar rate this year (7%). The average price per square meter of second-hand units increased more in Warsaw (7% and 5%, respectively), Krakow (6% and 5%), and the cities of the Upper Silesian-Zagłębie Metropolis (9% and 2%). Conversely, new apartments appreciated more than used ones in Wroclaw (6% and 5%), the Tricity (2% and 1%), and Poznan (6% and 3%).

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