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Electric Vehicles to Dominate Sales by 2030, Experts Predict

AUTOMOTIVEElectric Vehicles to Dominate Sales by 2030, Experts Predict

Electric vehicle (EV) sales are projected to surpass sales of all other types of vehicles by 2030, with over 75 million EVs expected to be on European roads by the end of the decade, according to experts at EY. The number of charging points across Europe is also increasing, now reaching almost 745,000. The EY and Eurelectric report, “How do we solve the challenge of data interoperability in e-mobility?” highlights that interoperability and information exchange will play a crucial role in enhancing driver experiences within the EV ecosystem. Each electric vehicle generates data that forms the basis for personalized recommendations and targeted services.

In all markets where zero-emission vehicles have been introduced, a gradual increase in their numbers is observed. Currently, EV sales account for 16% of all cars purchased worldwide. In 2023, over 14.1 million new electric vehicles hit the roads, bringing the total number to over 40 million. In the EU, UK, Norway, and Switzerland, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) made up one in five new cars sold in 2023.

There is no indication that this growth trend will stop—quite the opposite. According to EY experts, by 2030 in Europe, EV sales will exceed those of other vehicles, with 75 million zero-emission cars on the roads. A previous forecast from two years ago predicted this number to be 65 million. One of the factors driving this growth is the decline in battery prices, which unexpectedly rose in 2022. Additionally, issues such as environmental concerns, driving comfort, and more widespread charging infrastructure are becoming more prominent.

Electric cars are becoming an increasingly attractive option for consumers, leading to dynamic sales growth. They see many benefits to owning EVs, such as lower maintenance and operating costs—energy prices are more favorable than fuel prices in many markets. Furthermore, greater environmental awareness and corporate shifts to zero-emission fleets to meet sustainability commitments are significant. Technological advancements, such as shorter charging times, also increase user convenience, comments Jarosław Wajer, EY Partner and leader of the energy sector in Poland and the CESA region.

Logistics at the Start of the Eco Journey

In Europe, the sale of zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles (eHDVs) is also growing. Over 7% of delivery vans are now electric, while electric trucks account for 1.5% of the market, up from just 0.4% in 2022. The sale of electric buses has risen to 14%, driven primarily by France, Spain, and Germany. While changes are evident in logistics, the widespread adoption of electric vehicles here will be more challenging than for passenger cars.

Ensuring sufficient range for delivery vehicles is more complicated, and loads further burden batteries. For such fleets, infrastructure must be appropriately scaled to provide quick charging for multiple vehicles simultaneously, requiring significant investments in charging station expansion, notes Jarosław Wajer.

More Charging Stations

Strategically placed charging stations are essential to alleviate users’ concerns about range and long trips. Today’s electric cars are advanced enough to plan routes considering convenient charging stops. This is becoming easier as the number of public charging points in Europe has increased by 40%, from about 530,000 in 2022 to 744,000 a year later. However, the distribution of infrastructure is not uniform. In 2023, about 78% of European charging points were located in just seven countries: Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden, and the UK.

The adoption of alternative fuel infrastructure regulations (AFIR) will result in the installation of fast public charging stations for passenger and delivery cars every 60 kilometers along the EU’s main transport corridors, the TEN-T network. For eHDVs, full network coverage is expected by 2030. As electric cars become more widespread, the number of charging locations will need to increase continuously and proportionally. Users of electric cars themselves will help accurately identify new points.

Data generated by each electric car enables efficient information exchange between various systems and platforms, which is crucial for ensuring the efficiency, safety, and convenience of these vehicles. This data provides insights into where new charging stations are needed, based on EV usage patterns and network capacity information. Such data facilitates quicker and easier planning of new investments in electromobility, explains Michał Lesiuk, EY Partner and leader of advisory services for the industrial production and mobility sectors.

Smart Services

Using electric cars is becoming more convenient each year and better meets drivers’ expectations. Data generated by EVs forms the basis for personalized recommendations and targeted services. According to the International Energy Agency, new services will save the global EV industry over $4 billion by 2030 by reducing costs and increasing efficiency.

The EY and Eurelectric report notes that the deployment of fast and ultra-fast direct current (DC) chargers has accelerated, increasing by 77% to over 100,000, while the number of alternating current (AC) chargers has risen by 36%. Technological advancements mean that fast chargers now have a nominal power ten times higher than five years ago, significantly reducing charging time. Data exchange between various systems allows charging schedules to be optimized based on network capacity, real-time electricity rates, weather forecasts, and individual driver needs.

The development of charging infrastructure is supported by a significant technological leap, but electromobility has not yet reached its full potential. Today, it is supported by intelligent systems analyzing large amounts of data, and this area will continue to develop. A major challenge remains ensuring widespread access to charging stations in every European country. Faster installation of devices outside the trans-European transport network is necessary. Charging points need to appear at workplaces, residential areas, and commercial properties, and more high-power fast-charging hubs are needed to replace today’s gas stations, adds Jarosław Wajer.

About the Report
The analysis “How do we solve the challenge of data interoperability in e-mobility?” conducted by EY and Eurelectric is based on conversations with leading representatives of the automotive, energy, oil and gas industries, battery manufacturers, fleet management companies, leasing firms, and charging station representatives. It highlights trends and opinions regarding the electromobility market in Europe and worldwide.

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