The year 2024 in Poland’s housing market was marked by adjustments to new economic conditions. Data from Otodom Analytics shows that after the conclusion of the BK 2% program, developers increased the supply of apartments, reaching a record 57,000 units available by early December – 54% more than at the end of 2023. Sales dropped by 26% year-on-year over the first 11 months, yet the value of mortgage loans approached record highs. Meanwhile, the rate of price growth slowed. Will this dynamic balance between demand and supply continue into 2025?
Developers Stay Resilient Despite Uncertainty
The housing market entered 2024 with expectations tied to the introduction of a new preferential mortgage program. Developers, anticipating the next iteration, ramped up efforts to fill supply gaps in major cities. As a result, the first quarter saw 15,300 new apartments introduced in Poland’s seven largest markets, a 114% increase compared to Q1 2023.
Interestingly, despite the BK 2% program ending early in the year, sales remained satisfactory. In Q1, developers sold 10,900 units, a 3.4% increase year-on-year, though a 13.6% decrease from the previous quarter. This positive result likely stemmed from reservations made under the BK 2% program that banks were still processing at the start of the year.
Sales slowed significantly in Q2. In April, sales on the seven main markets fell by 27% year-on-year. In May, only 2,600 units were sold, similar to the levels seen at the turn of 2022 and 2023. Despite this, supply continued to grow, reaching 48,200 units by mid-year in the largest cities.
A rebound came in the fall. September saw 3,300 apartments sold – a 37% increase from August – thanks to pent-up demand. Sales remained steady throughout the autumn months.
Katarzyna Kuniewicz, Market Research Director at Otodom Analytics:
“Over the first eleven months of 2024, sales in Poland’s seven largest markets were down 26% year-on-year. The oversupply caused the number of available apartments to reach a record 56,000 by early December, up from 35,000 at the end of 2023. This dynamic increase in supply, coupled with weakened demand, extended the sales cycle from three quarters at the beginning of the year to 5.5 quarters by November.”
Who’s Buying Apartments?
Despite reduced interest from potential buyers, the drop was less severe than anticipated after the BK 2% program ended. In Q3, buyers with cash or mortgage eligibility returned to the market. These savvy investors recognized that stable prices and abundant options offered favorable conditions for purchasing. This trend is reflected in BIK data.
Dr. Waldemar Rogowski, Chief Analyst of the BIK Group and Director at SGH Institute of Corporate Finance and Investment:
“Contrary to earlier concerns, 2024 has been strong for the housing credit market. From January to October, banks issued 176,800 loans totaling PLN 73.9 billion, a 45.3% increase in volume and 62.4% in value year-on-year. This figure includes PLN 13.6 billion in loans from BK 2% applications submitted in 2023. Without this boost, the total would be around PLN 60.3 billion. If November and December maintain October’s levels, 2024 could close at PLN 85-86 billion – the second-best year on record.”
Active buyers weren’t limited to rental investors. According to an Otodom Analytics survey, over 70% of clients were seeking homes for personal use, while 13% planned to buy a second home for their children or parents.
Pricing Trends and Forecasts
In 2024, new apartment prices stabilized as external factors like high inflation and credit policy changes eased. Q1 saw a price growth rate of 2.3% quarter-on-quarter, dropping to 1.2% in Q3. By year-end, monthly price corrections stayed under 1%. The annual growth rate for new apartments was 8%, down from 14% in 2023.
However, trends varied by city. From November 2023 to November 2024, Poznań saw the lowest price increase (3.2%), followed by Gdańsk (5%). Łódź recorded the highest growth (16.7%), followed by Wrocław (11.7%).
Katarzyna Kuniewicz:
“In 2024, transactional prices rose due to wealthier buyers favoring larger, premium apartments. Although transaction numbers fell, higher purchase values raised average prices.”
2025: Challenges and Opportunities
Experts anticipate 2025 will be a unique year for the housing market due to upcoming planning reforms. Municipalities must finalize zoning plans by the end of 2025, potentially slowing development approvals. Developers are prepared, with permits exceeding project starts, ensuring supply potential.
Land availability in major cities remains a challenge. Even if zoning designates land for residential use, private ownership often blocks sales. Additionally, municipalities hesitate to rezone industrial or commercial land for housing.
Tomasz Stoga, President of the Wrocław Branch of PZFD:
“Buyers seek homes in large urban centers for work, infrastructure, and services, but developing in prime locations is increasingly difficult.”
Demand Outlook
Demand in 2025 is expected to remain stable, driven by affluent buyers using cash or mortgages. This segment will favor higher-end properties, reducing availability of premium apartments. Cheaper units may lower average prices, but significant long-term declines are unlikely without major economic disruptions.
Dr. Waldemar Rogowski:
“Three key factors for 2025: credit capacity, property prices, and a potential successor to BK 2%. Credit capacity depends on income, interest rates, and loan duration. I expect interest rates to fall in 2025, supporting mortgage activity. I foresee stable prices in H1, with slight increases in H2.”
Interest rate cuts will significantly impact the market. A 1% decrease could enable 30-40,000 more buyers to obtain mortgages, while a 2-3% drop could add 100,000 buyers.
