In the fourth quarter of 2023, rental expectations of property owners in many cities softened, albeit with modest adjustments. The rental market, typically experiencing a lull after its peak in the third quarter, exhibited a similar trend in 2023, as evidenced by a 26% decline in the number of contacts seekers made with property owners on Nieruchomosci-online.pl.
This slowdown was mirrored by a dynamic shift in supply. Rental listings noticeably decreased in August and September, primarily due to student demand, but a rebound commenced from October onwards. Consequently, there were over 8% more listings available at the end of December compared to September.
Cheaper, But Still Expensive
In Q4 2023, property owners in several cities lowered their rental expectations. In terms of percentage change, studio apartments experienced the most significant decreases in average rent in Kielce, Olsztyn, and Toruń – these provincial cities saw rent reductions of around 6% from the end of Q3. Average rates in Krakow, Wrocław, Poznań, Łódź, Szczecin, and Gorzów Wielkopolski fell between 2-4% QoQ. For 1-bedroom apartments, Q4 brought moderate rent increases in the remaining eight regional capitals.
According to Nieruchomosci-online.pl data, even fewer instances of average rent increases were observed for 2-bedroom apartments. Among all provincial cities, this was only the case in Warsaw (3% QoQ), Kielce (4% QoQ), and Gorzów Wielkopolski (1% QoQ). In the other analyzed cities, rents either remained virtually unchanged at Q3 levels (Katowice, Łódź, Rzeszów, Toruń) or declined by 1-4% QoQ (Bialystok, Bydgoszcz, Gdańsk, Kraków, Lublin, Olsztyn, Opole, Poznań, Szczecin, Wrocław, Zielona Góra).
“In recent months, rents have been gradually aligning with tenants’ affordability, and in some locations, there is no longer such a wide gap between owners’ expectations and tenants’ capabilities. However, it’s challenging to speak of significant discounts. Reductions are only a few percentage points from quarter to quarter, so rates remain elevated,” remarked Rafał Bieńkowski, PR manager of Nieruchomosci-online.pl.
“It’s also difficult to anticipate a significant correction in rents in 2024. Yes, the ‘Apartment to Start’ program, which could attract some buyers and weaken rental demand, could potentially lower rates. However, it’s important to remember that we are still experiencing inflation. Higher maintenance charges for co-ops are ultimately passed on to tenants,” Bieńkowski added.
A More Tranquil Year
In 2023, the rental market calmed down following a tumultuous 2022 characterized by soaring demand, including from Ukrainian refugees. The market, once so tight that almost everything was being leased, has cooled off in the past four quarters.
Comparing Q4 2023 to Q4 2022, the number of contacts seekers made with property owners via Nieruchomosci-online.pl declined by 14%. This demonstrates the market’s deceleration. Not everything is being leased at any price, although the specifics of the local market and the quality of the offered apartments play a significant role. However, there is a wide range of options available, with 46% more rental listings on Nieruchomosci-online.pl compared to the previous year.
