According to the latest AMRON-SARFiN report, Polish banks signed 45,897 new loan agreements between July and September 2024, totaling PLN 19.315 billion. This marks a 12.63% year-on-year increase. The improvement in the quality of housing loan portfolios and the gradual flexibility in financing conditions offered by banks are stabilizing signals for the market, despite still high loan costs and dynamic changes in property prices.
In the third quarter of 2024, the housing and mortgage loan markets were still characterized by a waiting atmosphere. Despite sustained high demand, transactions were hindered by high prices, limited creditworthiness among Poles, and uncertainty regarding government support programs like “0% Credit.” Many potential buyers hesitated, hoping for a drop in housing prices and interest rates. Investors also reduced their activity, discouraged by lower profitability resulting from earlier price hikes.
“Decisions regarding taking out a housing loan are now supported by signals of improving economic conditions—from the reversal of the inflation growth trend, through slight interest rate reductions on new loans, to more lenient creditworthiness criteria in some banks,” says Dr. Jacek Furga, Chairman of the Property Financing Committee of the Polish Bank Association and CEO of the Banking Law and Information Center. “Additionally, the stabilization of property prices and an increasingly wide market offer encourage purchase decisions. Over the past two years, we have observed a stable housing affordability index (IDM), indicating gradual improvements in property financing. All of this builds the foundation for further market recovery.”
In Q3 2024, Polish banks signed 45,897 new loan agreements totaling PLN 19.315 billion. This represents a 1.02% increase in the number of loans compared to Q2 2024 and a 12.63% rise year-on-year. The value of new loans increased by 1.03% quarter-on-quarter, which is nearly 22% higher compared to the same period last year when the “Safe Credit 2%” program launched.
The number of active loan agreements stood at 2.267 million, a decrease of 0.54% compared to the previous quarter and a 1.08% drop year-on-year. However, the total debt from housing loans grew by 1% quarter-on-quarter, reaching PLN 493.210 billion.
The average value of a housing loan increased by 8.69% year-on-year, reaching PLN 421,695. The share of loans with a high Loan-to-Value (LtV) ratio (above 80%) also increased, indicating greater flexibility in the financing conditions offered by banks.
Once again, the quality of housing loan portfolios improved. The share of non-performing loans dropped to 1.69%, a decrease of 0.23 percentage points compared to Q2 2024 and a quarter reduction year-on-year. The share of non-performing Swiss franc-denominated loans also decreased by 3.81 percentage points on a quarterly basis.
Despite stable interest rates and moderate wage growth, housing affordability in the largest Polish cities remains a challenge. The Housing Affordability Index (M3) increased to 132.69 points, still below historical averages. In Warsaw, the average transaction price of apartments reached PLN 14,548 per square meter, an increase of 1.89% quarter-on-quarter and 12.01% year-on-year.
Source: Manager Plus
