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Is the Lodz housing market facing an oversupply of apartments?

REAL ESTATEIs the Lodz housing market facing an oversupply of apartments?

Over the last 4 months, developers in Łódź have significantly sped up, and the city stands out both in terms of new supply and the number of available apartments for sale. In January, over 1100 developer apartments were introduced there, most of which were in the Widzew and Bałuty districts. By the end of the month, over 7.7 thousand units were available in the city, 46% more than a year ago. However, even though developers in Łódź are recording high sales results, the supply remains higher than buyer interest. Simultaneously, in January 2024, Łódź became the last of the 7 largest markets in Poland to exceed the average apartment price threshold of 10 thousand PLN per m².

By the end of January, the offer on the Łódź developer market in terms of size was only second to Warsaw, where over 9.4 thousand units were available. A year and two years ago, every 10th apartment offered by developers in the 7 largest markets (Katowice, Kraków, Łódź, Poznań, Tricity, Warsaw, Wrocław) was located in Łódź. Today it is every fifth.

Interestingly, while in other cities in 2023, the base of developer apartments was significantly shrinking, in Łódź the opposite trend was visible. The sharp increase in demand after the launch of the BK 2% program in the second half of last year contributed to a significant decrease in supply. At the end of January, the offer in annual terms was lower in Kraków by 43%, in Warsaw by 20%, in the Tri-City by 27%, and in Wrocław by 16%. Meanwhile, in Łódź in December, there was a 41% y/y increase in the number of available developer apartments for purchase, and in January, it was already 46% y/y.

The districts of Widzew and Polesie have the highest number of available apartments. In January, developers in Łódź recorded record results – in monthly terms for the first time in two years they sold over 500 apartments, which is 110% more than a year ago. However, it is worth noting that the new supply in Łódź significantly exceeded this level of sales at the beginning of the year. In the first month of the year, developers introduced a total of 1135 units in 5 districts – most in Widzew (790) and Bałuty (155).

While in 2023 we could talk about a balanced offer of developer apartments in various parts of the city, in January this year a large disproportion was already visible. Those looking for their own “M” had the largest choice available in Polesie (over 2.7 thousand offers) and Widzew (close to 2.7 thousand offers). Currently, developer apartments located in these two parts of the city constitute 70% of the entire offer of developers operating in Łódź. Does this mean that we can talk about oversupply in these two districts?

Otodom Analytics allows us to observe not only the available offer of developer apartments, but also the demand reported on individual markets and districts, and even the demand for specific types of apartments. The analysis of the relationship between demand and supply in various districts of Łódź indicates that the largest oversupply is currently recorded in Polesie and Widzew. Interestingly, in both districts the largest excess of supply over interest reported by potential clients concerns studio apartments. Although interest in such apartments remains high, the offer of developers in these districts significantly exceeds it – emphasizes Katarzyna Kuniewicz, Director of Otodom Analytics research.

What does the situation in other districts of Łódź look like? The number of units available offered by development companies is much lower and ranges from about 500 in Górna to about 800 in the city center and Bałuty.

The most expensive are in the city center, the cheapest in Bałuty. Prices on the Łódź developer market have caught up with the largest Polish markets. After a 5% increase in January, the average price of 1 m² of apartments available in the offer exceeded PLN 10 thousand. At the same time, Łódź still remains the least polarized in terms of price large city in Poland and the differences between individual districts are relatively small.

In January, the most, on average, 10.7 thousand/m², had to be paid by buyers of apartments in the city center of Łódź. A little less, because about 10 thousand/m² were the offer rates for localities in Widzew. However, your own “M” below 10 thousand/m² could be found in Górna and Polesie, while the cheapest apartments remained in Bałuty with an average price of 9.4 thousand/m².

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