In the years 2021-2023, the median age increased in 58 cities and decreased only in seven. In 2023, the oldest inhabitants were in Sopot, while the youngest were in those cities that attract new residents – including Rzeszow, Wroclaw, Krakow, or Warsaw. The demographic situation affects the functioning of the city and the services offered to residents, also in the field of health. This is according to the Healthy City Index.
“The Healthy City Index is a measure that shows the overall state of how cities create conditions for the healthy living of residents in various areas, whether through the creation of appropriate health policies, what the age structure of the population looks like, mortality from civilization diseases or premature death, how education shapes, space, infrastructure, environment. All these dimensions together can tell us how healthy living in Polish cities is,” explains Dr. Agnieszka Chłoń-Domińczak, Professor of SGH, Vice-Rector for Science at the Warsaw School of Economics in conversation with the Newseria Biznes news agency.
According to the Central Statistical Office data, the urban population constitutes almost 60% of the population. At the end of 2022, nearly 12.4 million inhabitants lived in cities with county rights (66), thus constituting nearly one-third of the population of Poland. The majority of Polish cities are getting older. Between 2021 and 2023, the median age increased in 58 cities and decreased in seven. The Healthy City Index 2024 indicates that in the past year, the oldest inhabitants were in Sopot, while the youngest ones were in Rzeszow.
In 2023, only nine cities had positive migration balances, indicating their greater attractiveness (for comparison – 58 had negative balances). Migration directions changed only in Katowice, where more people arrived than left in 2023. Meanwhile, between 2021 and 2023, the migration balance increased in 38 cities and decreased in 27. This means that most cities are increasing their attractiveness, although this does not translate into a change in migration trends, but intensifies this process. From 2018 to 2022, nearly 180,000 more inhabitants have arrived in Warsaw, Wrocław, Krakow, Gdansk, Poznan, and Rzeszow. At the same time, some cities are losing inhabitants, including Lodz, Bydgoszcz, Zabrze, Bytom, Radom, Katowice, and Czestochowa.
“We have cities that are relatively young, which attract new inhabitants. Young people come to those places, and they are large cities: Warsaw, Gdansk, Krakow, Poznan, but also Rzeszow, which is one of the youngest cities and in the category of Population got first place in our index,” points out the index’s co-author.
According to Professor Piotr Szukalski, due to favorable domestic and foreign migrations, only a few cities in Poland are currently increasing their population. He estimates that by 2060, only Warsaw and Krakow will have more inhabitants than today.
“We unfortunately also have cities that are depopulating. These are often smaller cities, but also ones that are regional capitals, but people leave them. This is, for example, Lodz or Kielce, where there are many challenges related to keeping young people, creating attractive living conditions for them,” explains Dr. Agnieszka Chłoń-Domińczak.
It is difficult for cities with a smaller population to retain young people, who after education choose the largest cities or regions where it is easiest to find work. In less attractive cities, only the elderly are usually left. According to Professor Szukalski, the proportion of older people, especially the very oldest (80+), will constantly increase. By around 2060, the shares of older people (at least 60 years old) in all cities will exceed 35%, in the case of Lodz, they will even reach 40%. At the same time, the proportion of inhabitants aged 20-59 will constantly decrease.
“How the demographic situation affects many elements of the functioning of the city. If we have a larger proportion of older people, it means that we need appropriate infrastructure, access to health services, but also long-term care, infrastructure that allows a senior to go for a walk, sit on a bench, if needed. These are different health services than in the case of cities where there are many young people starting families, where prenatal care is needed, as well as in vitro programs,” points out the SGH expert.
As shown by the Healthy Cities Index, in the group of indicators related to mortality due to civilization diseases, trends are diversified. The coefficient of deaths caused by tumors decreased in 45 cities and increased in 21. On average, mortality in cities from these causes decreases. However, mortality related to cardiovascular diseases is increasing. In 2022, compared to 2020, the index of deaths due to cardiovascular diseases increased in 46 cities and decreased in 20 cities.
All Central Statistical Office scenarios predict a steady decline in the population of Poland. In the high scenario, it is to fall to 34.8 million by 2060, while in the low one – to 26.7 million. This would mean a decrease compared to 2022 by 8-29%. By 2060, a decline in the number of children and young people is expected by about 11% (high scenario) and by half (low scenario) compared to 2022 data. The workforce will also decrease. According to the Social Insurance Institution (ZUS), in 2023, about 390 post-production age people per 1,000 working-age people were recorded, while in 2061, this will be 806, and in 2080 – 839.
