The Polish currency has been weighed down by poor macroeconomic data. Employment and wages have performed poorly, as well as industrial production. In the meantime, the dollar is performing well as interest rate cuts appear to be receding.
Wages fell in September
Yesterday we learned about wages. On one hand, wages are still growing by 10.3% year-on-year. On the other hand, the market expected 11.1%. This is why the average salary amounted to 8140.98 PLN, which is a decrease of almost 50 PLN compared to August. It should be noted that employment on a year-on-year basis is also decreasing. At the moment it’s only 0.5%, but this is a value that causes concern. These are data pertaining to companies employing more than 9 people. Therefore, it doesn’t necessarily represent the entire market, but it does cover a significant part of it.
Other data from Poland
Yesterday we also received readings on industrial and construction-assembly production. Industrial is down by 0.3%, which is worse than the expected increase of 0.2%. Admittedly, a monthly increase is visible, but it doesn’t make much difference. The decrease in construction-assembly is 9% year-on-year. However, we need to remember that a year ago, the market was heated by government programs. Therefore, it’s not a result to be afraid of. Especially considering analysts were expecting a bigger decrease. The złoty reacted to these data with a slight depreciation and the euro exchange rate jumped by about 1 grosz after publication.
The dollar gains again
Yesterday evening was marked by a change in expectations across the ocean. Announcements from Federal Reserve members caused the market to believe again in a slowdown in interest rate cuts. There is already a one-third chance that we’ll only see one cut by the end of the year. Just a month ago, the scenario for at least three cuts of 0.25% was clearly dominating. As a result of these changes, investors looked favorably once again at the dollar, which had another good day compared to the euro.
In the macroeconomic data calendar, there are no important readings.
Maciej Przygórzewski – Chief Analyst at InternetowyKantor.pl
Source: https://managerplus.pl/slabe-dane-slaby-zloty-91283
