The stock exchange on Wall Street began the week with slight volatility. Even though the SP500 dropped by 0.4%, the Dow Jones by 0.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite by 0.1%, the indexes are still in close proximity to their historic records. In Europe, the DAX ended the day without changes while the WIG20 lost about 0.5%. Bitcoin experienced a significant upward movement, increasing almost by 5.8%, a trend that continued into the morning. Furthermore, the EUR/USD exchange rate rose, with quotations moving up from 1.0815 to 1.086. Investors await the Thursday report on American consumer spending.
Today’s macroeconomic calendar, much like yesterday’s, will not be filled with key macro data. The Central Bank of Hungary will decide on the interest rate. The progressing deflationary process, displayed by January’s inflation decrease to 3.8% per annum, indicates a real dip of 100 bp is plausible. For the US, durable goods orders (forecasted drop) as well as December’s property prices and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (forecasted to stay similar to previous month at 114.9) will be revealed.
Last night, inflation data from Japan was revealed. The basic index dropped to 2% per annum from 2.3% in January (forecast was 1.8%). The fundamental index also dipped and relayed a level of 2.2%, previously it was 2.6% in December. The market still somewhat anticipates that the Bank of Japan will soon tighten its monetary policy. The data for February will likely show another increase, due to the anti-inflation shields put in place by last year’s government no longer being effective. US Dollar/Yen quotations reached a technical resistance of 150.80 and are currently slightly falling. This morning, the rising trend line was breached.
On Monday, we were informed about the opinions of a few decision-makers from the European Central Bank. The President of the Bank of Greece (Y. Stournaras) indicated that June should be the start of easing monetary conditions in the Eurozone. Meanwhile, Lagarde (the head of the ECB) again drew attention to the dynamics of wage growth. She stated that the Q1 data could be key in the decision regarding interest rates.
Yesterday, the EUR/USD exchange rate increased and reached a level close to 1.0860. Progress is slow, with the next technical resistance zone at 1.0885 – 1.09. This zone results from peaks and troughs from the past several weeks. The GBP/USD exchange rate remains within the upper limit of the falling channel, which has been the case since the beginning of the year.
Bitcoin’s price once again sharply increased. Yesterday, it grew by 5.8%, and today, the cryptocurrency is again up by over 2%. An evident upward trend can be seen and the flag formation, created in the second half of February, effectively predicted the continuation of growth. The prices are the highest since November 28th, 2023, and they indicate a level of 56,400 USD.
Lukasz Zembik Oanda TMS Brokers
