The US elections are already underway, and the markets are looking uncertainly at their outcome, which is reflected in the weakening of the dollar. Better data from Europe fades into the background of the American elections, similarly as the slowing inflation in Turkey.
Data from USA
Though the markets are mainly focused on the elections across the ocean, even at such times, one can’t ignore the macroeconomic data. Orders for goods performed better than expected, both transport-void orders that are growing faster than predictions, as well as durable consumer goods, which are indeed falling, but less than anticipated. Conversely, industrial orders have a declining trend, contrary to earlier expectations. Unfortunately, this shows us a picture of America which consumes much more effectively than it produces. Nevertheless, due to the emotional nature of the election campaign, this data may remain in the shadow of political events.
Business indexes in Europe
On Monday, data on PMI indexes from major European economies were published. Data for the euro area turned out to be symbolically better than expected. The index rose to 46 points, which is 0.1 point better than the prognosis, but also significantly worse than the 50 points that splits the difference between negative and positive responses. The slight improvement is mainly due to Germany’s less poor result. On the same day, the Polish reading reached 49.2 points, which was a positive surprise and the best result in over two years. After the data, the Polish zloty gained, but the effect did not last until the end of the day.
Decline of inflation in Turkey
Yesterday, we learned about the price increases across the Bosphorus. The annual rate is 48.6%, which is more than the expected 48.2%, but also the lowest result since July 2023. This is why this country maintains the highest interest rates in Europe. With the downward trend of consumer inflation in Turkey, it can be anticipated, within the coming months, that we may witness discussions about reducing interest rates. The second and third places are held by the aggressor and the victim of the current war in Europe. Interestingly, the Ukrainian economy – despite the ongoing conflict – is doing better on lower levels than Russia, which suggests the relative impact of the sanctions.
Today on the macroeconomic data calendar there are scheduled data releases, but it seems that even the foreign trade in the USA at 14:30 won’t over-shadow the leaks from the US elections.
Maciej Przygórzewski – Chief Analyst at InternetowyKantor.pl
Source: https://managerplus.pl/niepewnosc-na-rynkach-przed-wyborami-w-usa-dolar-w-odwrocie-82715
