Transport and logistics companies entered 2024 in even better spirits than they finished the last year. The industry subindex of the EFL Barometer for TSL for the first quarter of this year was 58.1 points, 5.4 points more than the previous quarter. The sector has not recorded such a good result for over 6 years – in the fourth quarter of 2017, the reading was 63.8 points. 34% of companies forecast higher sales, and 15% higher investments. Inflation also remains less of a challenge. Only 15% of TSL sector representatives fear it, 12 percentage points less than the previous quarter.
EFL Barometer for the transport industry for the first quarter of 2024:
- Investments: 15% plan larger investments, 76% of entrepreneurs do not expect changes in investments.
- Sales: 34% forecast sales increase, 57.5% of entrepreneurs forecast a similar sales level as in the fourth quarter of 2023.
- Financial liquidity: 31% of entrepreneurs forecast a higher level of financial liquidity than in the fourth quarter of 2023.
- External financing: 61% of entrepreneurs forecast a need for external financing at the same level as in the fourth quarter of 2023.
“The sector indicator for transport and logistics has exceeded the OR threshold for the second quarter in a row, which means that the TSL sector in Poland has been gaining speed for several months now. We recall that the level of limited growth of micro, small and medium-sized companies, which in our study is 50 points, means that companies see opportunities for greater development of their business. They have objective reasons to forecast higher sales and to invest more. We haven’t seen such positive forecasts for several years, and we hope this is the beginning of an upward trend,” says Radosław Woźniak, President of the EFL Management Board.
Sales are on the rise
For the first quarter of this year, TSL sector representatives issued more optimistic forecasts in both the areas of sales and investments. 34% of logistics, transport and forwarding companies are counting on higher sales at the beginning of the year. This is significantly more than at the end of last year – in the fourth quarter of 2023, it was 13%. Better financial liquidity follows higher revenues, which 31% expect (10% a quarter earlier).
Investments are also expected to rise. 15% of TSL sector companies plan to increase the level of investments, a quarter earlier it was 12%. 16% of respondents report a greater need for external financing (13% a quarter earlier).
Inflation on Cruise Control
When asked about the impact of war and inflation on their businesses, transport companies, like other industries, are less and less afraid of both factors. In the first quarter of this year, only 4% of respondents indicated a negative impact of war on business operations (-7 p.p. quarterly).
More transport companies are afraid of inflation, but here too there is a decline in pessimistic forecasts. 15% of transport companies are afraid of worsening their business’s condition due to rising inflation. Three months earlier, 29% of companies gave such an answer. In HoReCa, as many as 47.5% of respondents answered this way, in trade – 35%, in industry 27%, in construction 30%, and in services 41%.
