In October, developers introduced more apartments to the market than they sold. In Łódź, Poznań, and cities of the Upper Silesian-Dąbrowa Metropolitan Area, the supply of apartments has never been this high. Although this did not lead to a drop in the average price per square meter of apartments, in all metropolitan areas, prices remained stable compared to the previous month.
“The situation is unprecedented in the history of housing markets in major cities. In all metropolitan areas, October brought stabilization in the average price per square meter of apartments available in developers’ offers,” said Marek Wielgo, an expert from RynekPierwotny.pl.
According to BIG DATA RynekPierwotny.pl, October marked the third consecutive month without an increase in the average listing price per square meter of new apartments in the Tri-City (15,500 PLN/m²). It was also the second month of price stability in Warsaw (nearly 17,800 PLN/m²), Kraków (over 16,400 PLN/m²), and Poznań (over 13,200 PLN/m²). In October, price increases slowed in Wrocław (just under 14,600 PLN/m²), Łódź (over 11,500 PLN/m²), and cities of the Upper Silesian-Dąbrowa Metropolitan Area (over 10,900 PLN/m²).
Stable Prices Amid Growing Supply
October did not shift the rankings in the race for this year’s price increase leader. Wrocław leads with an 11% rise in the average price per square meter since the beginning of the year. Łódź follows with a 10% increase, while Poznań holds third place with a 7% rise. Meanwhile, the average price in Warsaw increased by 6%, Kraków by 5%, and the Tri-City by 4%. At the bottom is the Upper Silesian-Dąbrowa Metropolitan Area, where the average price rose by 3% over the same period.
The price stabilization in the housing market is largely attributed to growing competition among developers. Never before have there been as many apartments on the market in Łódź (over 9,400), Poznań (around 7,300), and cities of the Upper Silesian-Dąbrowa Metropolitan Area (over 8,600). Similarly, in Warsaw (around 14,400), Kraków (over 8,600), and the Tri-City (over 6,500), the supply of apartments was last this high during the housing credit crisis at the turn of 2022 and 2023. In Wrocław, developers now offer over 9,700 units, close to the record levels of October 2019.
“In this situation, some developers decided to lower prices to improve their annual sales results. In November and December, potential buyers interested in larger apartments can also expect promotions,” commented Marek Wielgo.
Increased Interest in Mortgages
These strategies seem to be yielding the desired results, as developers in most metropolitan areas signed more contracts with clients in October than in September (the exception was Wrocław). This trend is reflected in the mortgage market. According to the Credit Information Bureau (BIK), around 15,300 households received positive credit decisions in September for purchasing apartments, marking a 3% increase compared to August. Even more notable is the rise in demand for housing loans. In September, banks received approximately 28,500 mortgage applications (8% more than in August), and in October, this number surged to 34,500, a 21% month-over-month increase.
Most likely, those who believe delaying their purchase decision is no longer sensible are now lining up for credit. While the choice of apartments is increasing, the number of affordable units is shrinking. Rising land and construction costs make new apartments increasingly expensive. In October, the share of apartments priced below 10,000 PLN/m² declined in Łódź, Poznań, and cities of the Upper Silesian-Dąbrowa Metropolitan Area. Only in the Tri-City did the proportion of affordable apartments increase, from 6% to 8%, likely due to price reductions. However, at the end of last year, nearly one in five apartments offered by Tri-City developers fell into this price range. In Kraków and Warsaw, finding such apartments is nearly impossible, likely limited to larger units. In Łódź, nine months ago, over half of the new apartments cost less than this threshold; now, they represent just over one-fourth of developers’ offers.
Author: Marek Wielgo, expert at RynekPierwotny.pl
