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The rental housing market in 2024 is expected to be more balanced in terms of demand and supply

REAL ESTATEThe rental housing market in 2024 is expected to be more balanced in terms of demand and supply

Not only tenants are wondering what changes rent might undergo in 2024. Therefore, we attempted a few forecasts.

The Polish rental market is certainly not leading in the European Union scale. Eurostat data suggest that approximately every twentieth inhabitant of Poland occupies a rental property on the open market. Nevertheless, for the past nearly two years the market rental has gained significant interest amongst local media. This is all due to rapid rent increases, apparent after the Russian invasion of Ukraine commenced. In 2023, the pricing situation in the rental market has stabilized, and in the fall and winter, decreasing tendencies were often noticeable. Despite this, renting in 2024 is a topic that might raise some concerns – both among tenants and landlords. As typical for the end of the year forecasts, we decided to describe anticipated changes and phenomena in the rental market over the next 12 months.

Here’s a brief summary of our article:

1. In 2024, higher utility bill costs can be a bigger problem for tenants than rising rents. Let’s remember that the “freeze” of electricity, gas, and heat prices will only be valid until the end of June.

2. Apartment owners conducting traditional rental can increase rent by about 11% without further justification in 2024. However, such substantial increases could be problematic due to market conditions.

3. Even if the government launches a new Start-up Apartment program, the outflow of customers from the rental market (associated with moving “to their own”) will probably be smaller than in all of 2023. This mentioned outflow in the scale of the entire rental market does not have a significant relevance.

Below, we write more about what renting might look like in 2024. Of course, not all changes can be currently predicted.

After mid-year, costly utilities can become a problem. Based on current market observations, it can be presumed that there will neither similar supply problems experienced by tenants two years earlier in 2024.

The possible significant increase in rental costs in 2024 may primarily result from increases in utility bills. Rent in 2024 will definitely depend on the government’s energy policy.

Inflation higher than the assumed National Bank of Poland objective will undoubtedly influence rent in 2024.

The Central Statistical Office has not yet published the relevant notice, but it can be assumed that the annual inflation calculated for 2023 will be about 11%. That is the percentage value (about 11%) by which apartment owners will be able to increase the rent without referring to the necessity of achieving an adequate return on investment and a fair income.

If we talk about 2023, rental property owners to some extent felt the impact of the Safe Credit 2% program. More than 80,000 households applied for the preferential “mortgage”. Even if the government launches a new Start-up Apartment program, whose coalition support is still uncertain, the outflow of customers from the rental market (associated with moving “to their own”) will probably be smaller than in all of 2023. However, this factor should not matter much.

Author/Source: Magdalena Markiewicz, expert of NieruchomosciSzybko.pl portal.

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