In the first half of 2024, there were reportedly 17,1 thousand shoplifting offenses, which is 28.5% fewer than a year earlier, according to data from the Polish Main Police Command. Furthermore, the number of theft offenses also decreased. There were just over 125,7 thousand of them, representing a decrease of 12.4% compared to the same period in the previous year. Most of these offenses still occur in large-scale stores, almost 103 thousand cases to be exact, while small outlets see just over 22.7 thousand. Market experts believe that the rate of theft should continue to decrease unless inflation increases significantly. In that case, the trend may turn, albeit minimally.
Data from the Main Police Command distinctly show that shop thefts have considerably decreased, at least statistically. According to the data, more than 17,1 thousand shop theft crimes were recorded in the first half of 2024. This is 28.5% fewer than in the same period of the previous year, when there were almost 24 thousand such cases.
“The industry has most probably left behind the wave of thefts resulting from past crises. Preventive measures taken by retailers as well as enhanced security systems could also contribute to this decrease,” comments Łukasz Grzesik, a specialist in retail security.
Experts argue that these data are inevitable tied to changes in the law. Since October 2023, the regulations governing the threshold for determining theft offenses have changed. The threshold has been raised from 500 to 800 PLN, thus different amounts applied in the analyzed periods for classifying an event as a theft crime.
“In my view, this may have had some impact on the data, but I don’t think it was the main cause for the decrease. Rather, the criminals have adapted to the current situation. They are observing changes in the law while continuing their criminal activities,” comments Robert Biegaj, an expert from Offerista Group.
Biegaj also observes that the decrease in inflation also influences the decrease in the number of theft crimes. It results in fewer people willing to take this step. Łukasz Grzesik similarly observes that those who previously resorted to petty thefts under economic pressure but had not done so before, have now ceased their activity.
“Their economic situation has improved or they have faced legal consequences acting as deterrence. Additionally, the industry has taken other preventive measures to counter the wave of shop thefts contributing to the current state of affairs,” said Grzesik.
As noted by Robert Wodejko, a security expert from the Lower Silesian University in Wrocław, it isn’t possible to directly translate the aforementioned statistical data to a decrease in shop thefts, due to a change in the law. It is necessary to gather more statistics indicating authorities accepted notifications of committed thefts in the amount of 501 PLN to 800 PLN. Adding these number to the crimes revealed in the particular period of this year might give a clear picture of the situation.
Furthermore, the expert suggests that the decrease could also be influenced by the suspension or closure of many shops in Poland. This was particularly noticeable in recent months due to increased costs of running such businesses resulting in fewer possible theft locations.
“The causes behind certain categories of crimes have to be located in connection with many factors. Statistical data should show the scale of the problem, yet to objectively assess changing trends, we need a lot of additional information. We cannot rely only on numbers,” explains the expert from the Lower Silesian University in Wrocław.
Previous years saw police statistics consistently reflecting high increases in the number of shop thefts. However, for the first time in a while, there is a decrease in this regard. Despite this, the scale of incidents in retail can still be concerning.
“Living conditions and prosperity determine the number of thefts, as evidenced by consumer indices. The role of professional thefts committed by organized criminal groups is also decreasing. It appears that such groups weigh the decision to take a risk more carefully as product availability and purchase conditions ‘spoil’ the illegal market. New generations of safeguards are entering the market and their numbers are increasing, thus increasing the risk”, Dr. Andrzej Maria Faliński, Vice President of the Forum for Economic Dialogue Association.
Meanwhile, Robert Biegaj emphasizes the need to see what will actually happen in the coming quarters. The complexity of theft in Poland, connected as it is to the economic and social situation, makes predicting long-term scenarios very challenging.
“At the moment it looks positive in terms of the number of events, but we should keep in mind that we are really comparing two dramatically different periods, i.e., periods of the highest price increases (including inflation) and periods of significant dips. Here, caution must to be exercised in order not to make a mistake,” warns an expert from the Offerista Group.
Main Police Command data also shows that in the first half of this year, just over 125,7 thousand theft offenses occurred in both large and small stores. This is 12.4% fewer than in the same period the previous year, when a little over 143,5 thousand such cases were reported.
“This confirms the general trend. We are earning better, prices are not rising, thus we steal less. We cannot afford to take the risk of theft. This applies to all stores,” emphasizes Dr. Faliński. “In small stores, we see an increase in the role of modern safeguards, due to standards of equipment expected by franchisors,” the expert added.
The majority of such offenses continue to occur in large-scale stores. In the first half of this year, there were close to 103 thousand of them. In 2023, a little over 114,6 thousand were registered. In the case of small stores, this year’s figures are slightly higher at just over 22.7 thousand. This was closer to 29 thousand in the previous year. Experts explain this by the anonymity provided by large stores with wide range of products and crowded with consumers.
“People committing thefts still prefer conglomerations, where there are more large-scale facilities. There is better choice and it is easier to hide the intent to steal when staff are busy serving other customers,” says Łukasz Grzesik. “On the other hand, small formats are the domain of petty theft for immediate needs. It is more difficult to steal regularly, as it is easier to detect,” remarks the retail security specialist.
According to the experts, it is difficult to explicitly indicate how the second half of 2024 may look in terms of thefts, both in terms of crimes and related offenses. Numerous factors affecting their number are still strongly uncertain in the economic situation.
“Inflation will probably increase. If it is not immediately offset by wage increase, it will immediately be visible in consumer and employee theft statistics,” predicts Dr. Andrzej Maria Faliński. “The high threshold between offense and crime will only further this trend. Towards the end of the year, the ‘season of gift-giving’ will have a strong impact on the increase in theft,” Dr. Faliński concludes.
Source: https://ceo.com.pl/mniej-kradziezy-w-sklepach-policja-mowi-nawet-o-blisko-30-procentowym-spadku-przestepstw-rok-do-roku-75600
