The Monetary Policy Council conference has reassured us that nothing has changed. We should still not expect interest rate cuts in the coming months. In the background, weaker data from the USA causes a flow of capital from the dollar to the euro.
Glapiński did not disappoint the viewers
One thing can be certain after NBP Chairman’s press conferences – it won’t be academic boredom. On the other hand, these are very broad comments on many elements, sometimes loosely related to monetary policy. Yesterday, we learned about thoughts on the 2025 budget, the motion for the State Tribunal or gold reserves. While the budget for 2025 is, to put it mildly, huge, we didn’t learn much about interest rates. A vision of achieving the inflation target only in 2026 is painted before us, with inflation above 5% at the end of it. However, President Adam Glapiński admits discussion of cuts “already” after the March projection. What does it mean for the markets? It is a clear signal strengthening the Polish zloty. If rates are falling in other countries, and not here, investing in zloty will give relatively better returns. This also means, of course, abstractly expensive, compared to the rest of the Union, the cost of buying homes on credit.
Weak data from overseas
Yesterday, we learned about weaker data from the American labor market. Unemployment claims symbolically fell and are at a decent level of 227,000, but the ADP report on jobs showed only 99,000. The last time we saw a lower result was in September last year. So, we have further signals that the labor market in the US is not doing well. What does it mean? Two things. First, weaker data lead to a weaker dollar. Secondly, weaker data mean a higher probability of stimulating the economy with lower interest rates, which again means a weaker dollar. Therefore, it is no surprise that yesterday the exchange rate of the US dollar fell compared to the euro exchange rate.
Data from Germany
Yesterday, we learned about orders in the industry beyond the Oder. It was a pleasant surprise, because in monthly terms analysts expected a decline of 1.5%, and got an increase of 2.9%. This data deepened yesterday’s move to shift interest from the dollar to the euro. This morning we learned about industrial production data, which is falling significantly harder than expected. As a result, we have a slight cold shower for enthusiasts of shifting attention to our side of the ocean. However, remember that important data from the US labor market awaits us in the afternoon and it will determine the balance between euro and the dollar at the end of the week.
Today in the macroeconomic data calendar, worth paying attention to:
14:30 – USA – labor market situation.
Maciej Przygórzewski – chief analyst at InternetowyKantor.pl
Source: https://managerplus.pl/konferencja-rpp-bez-niespodzianek-oslabienie-dolara-czekamy-na-dane-z-usa-28352
