At the end of September, a record number of apartments were available in the offers of developers in Wrocław, Łódź, Poznań, and cities in the Upper Silesian-Dąbrowa Metropolis. In Warsaw, Kraków, and the Tri-City, a similar surge in availability was last seen during the slump in the mortgage market. However, this increase in available apartments has not led to a decrease in the average price per square meter.
“The situation for people who can afford to buy an apartment is quite favorable. This year, in all the largest cities, developers have introduced more apartments for sale than they’ve sold, which means that their inventory has increased. Importantly, buyers don’t need to make decisions under the pressure of rising prices,” says Marek Wielgo, an expert from RynekPierwotny.pl.
According to data from BIG DATA RynekPierwotny.pl, in the third quarter of this year, Poznań was the only metropolis where the number of apartments in the market offer decreased (-3%). However, the number of available apartments is still 42% higher than at the end of last year. The most impressive increases were noted not only in Poznań but primarily in Wrocław (+83%) and Kraków (+66%). In Warsaw, the supply grew by 49%, in the Tri-City by 32%, in the Upper Silesian-Dąbrowa Metropolis by 25%, and in Łódź by 19%.
This growth is not merely the result of a low base. Recall that in the second half of last year, the number of available apartments dramatically shrank due to the introduction of the “Safe Loan 2%” program by banks. The recovery in supply is also due to a significant increase in developer activity. For example, in Kraków and Wrocław, developers introduced more than twice as many apartments for sale in the first nine months of this year than in the same period last year.
Unfortunately, the momentum of developers clearly slowed down in the third quarter. The most significant slowdown was observed in Poznań (new supply dropped by 71%) and in the cities of the Upper Silesian-Dąbrowa Metropolis (-40%). In Łódź, developers introduced 26% fewer apartments compared to the second quarter, in Wrocław 23% fewer, and in Warsaw 14% fewer. Only in Kraków (+89%) and the Tri-City (+35%) did developers increase the number of new apartments for sale.
In total, the seven largest metropolitan markets saw the introduction of just under 14,200 new apartments, which is 9% fewer than in the second quarter. Compared to the first quarter, the drop reaches 28%.
There is no doubt that this is a response by developers to the shrinking demand. Many potential buyers are holding off on making purchases. Some are waiting for prices to drop, others for more favorable credit terms, or the launch of the new “Mortgage #naStart” support program for borrowers.
The most significant drop in the sale of new apartments in the third quarter occurred in Poznań (-36%) and the cities of the Upper Silesian-Dąbrowa Metropolis (-34%). A smaller decline was noticed in the Tri-City (-20%), Wrocław (-16%), and Warsaw (-13%). In Łódź, developer sales were 6% lower in the third quarter than in the second. The exception was Kraków, where new apartment sales in the summer months increased by 11%, likely due to the large number of new apartments introduced to the market (89% more than in the second quarter).
In Poznań, the supply slowdown was more pronounced than the decline in demand, suggesting that developers there feel the market already has sufficient inventory. According to BIG DATA RynekPierwotny.pl, record levels of available apartments are not only in Poznań but also in Wrocław, Łódź, and the cities of the Upper Silesian-Dąbrowa Metropolis. In Warsaw, Kraków, and the Tri-City, such a large number of available apartments was last seen during the housing credit market collapse in late 2022 and early 2023. Developers are now competing for customers, and buyers expect discounts.
However, it’s important to note that apartments in new developments are becoming more expensive due to rising land prices and construction costs. This trend is evident in the pricing structure of apartments offered by developers. Apartments priced below 10,000 PLN per square meter are disappearing rapidly. For example, such apartments are no longer available in Kraków, and finding them in Warsaw is nearly impossible. Nine months ago, over half of the new apartments in Łódź were priced below this threshold, but now they account for just over a quarter of the market offer.
Young people looking to buy their first home are the primary “victims” of rising costs. The fastest price increases are occurring in the cheapest segment of the market. According to BIG DATA RynekPierwotny.pl, the increase in median price per square meter in the most affordable segment has reached double digits in three of the seven largest cities. In Wrocław, the median rose from about 9,800 PLN to 11,300 PLN (+16%), in Warsaw from about 11,700 PLN to 13,300 PLN (+14%), and in the Tri-City from 9,600 PLN to 10,600 PLN (+10%).
In the popular segment, Łódź led the price increases this year, with the median rising from 9,900 PLN to 11,500 PLN per square meter, an increase of 16%. Double-digit increases were also seen in Wrocław (+13%), while buyers in the Tri-City saw a more modest rise (+4%).
Interestingly, the premium segment saw the smallest price increases this year. In Poznań, the median price per square meter even decreased from 16,500 PLN to just under 16,300 PLN (-1%), while in the Upper Silesian-Dąbrowa Metropolis it dropped from 14,700 PLN to 14,000 PLN (-5%). Only Łódź (+13%) and Wrocław (+12%) saw double-digit increases in this segment.
In September, the average price per square meter of apartments in developers’ offers in the Tri-City fell by 1%, while in Warsaw, Kraków, and Poznań, it remained stable. However, potential buyers in Wrocław should be concerned, as prices there have risen for six consecutive months, increasing by 2% this time. A 1% increase was also noted in Łódź and the Upper Silesian-Dąbrowa Metropolis.
These price changes do not necessarily reflect developers raising prices, but rather shifts in the mix of available apartments. Market dynamics mean that the average price per square meter can fluctuate depending on whether a batch of more expensive or relatively cheaper apartments comes to market. In Wrocław, for instance, the increase can be explained by the introduction of apartments priced well above the city’s average of about 14,600 PLN per square meter.
As a result, Wrocław has taken the lead as this year’s price hike leader, with the average price per square meter rising by 12% since the start of the year. Łódź, with a 10% increase, fell to second place, while Poznań remains third with an 8% rise. In Warsaw, prices have risen by 6%, in Kraków by 5%, in the Upper Silesian-Dąbrowa Metropolis by 4%, and in the Tri-City by 3%.
