The Polish zloty continues to gain significantly for the second day in a row, despite the fact that domestic data in no way justify this. Over three days, the euro exchange rate has fallen by over 5 groszy, even as we reported lower than expected GDP growth and weaker business performance indices.
Pessimism Returns to Poland
The PMI index for industry has once again declined for the second month in a row. Analysts expected a level of 48.2 points, but the actual reading came out at 47.1 points. This is over a point below expectations. The key reference point (as always in these studies) is the 50-point level, which separates the dominance of positive responses from negative ones. However, it should be remembered that our country was last above this threshold in April, only of 2022. Even an unexpected burst of optimism in November, when investors viewed the world through their post-election rose-colored glasses, only reached 48.7 points. After this reading, the zloty momentarily lost value, but by the end of the day, thanks to movements on the world markets, it returned to its upward trend.
Less Bad in the Eurozone
The eurozone showed a relatively very good result. Relatively, because 46.6 points is still weaker than the reading from Poland. However, this is the highest result since March of the previous year, showing hope for the European economy pulling out of the doldrums. On the other hand, it is still just less bad than before, with the majority of respondents still expecting the situation to worsen. The U.S. index, meanwhile, exceeded the 50-point boundary, returning to this area after a two-month hiatus. Despite this, investors decided yesterday that it was better to shift their capital to Europe. This move was the cause of the aforementioned strengthening of the Polish currency despite the weak reading of macroeconomic data.
The United Kingdom Does Not Change Interest Rates
Yesterday’s data did not particularly surprise the markets. As expected, interest rates in the UK remained unchanged. The vote, however, was somewhat surprising. A month ago, 3 people voted for a cut, with 6 voting for no change. Analysts expected two people to switch from cutting to no change. In fact, 2 people voted for cuts, but one voted to raise interest rates. Inflation in the UK did rise over the month, but only by 0.1%. This seems to be more a matter of future expectations for this indicator.
Today, it is worth paying attention to the following macroeconomic data on the calendar:
14:30 – United States – labor market situation,
16:00 – United States – University of Michigan report,
16:00 – United States – industrial orders.
Maciej Przygórzewski – chief analyst at InternetowyKantor.pl and Walutomat.pl
