According to preliminary estimates, the CPI inflation rate in July was 4.2 percent year on year. The month before, the rate was 2.6 percent. On a monthly basis, there was a strong increase of 1.4 percent month on month. The primary cause for the increase in inflation is the withdrawal of the anti-inflation shield. This means an increase in the prices of energy, gas, and heat.
Elevated inflation of around 5 percent will likely stay with us until the end of the year. We are already looking at the first quarter of 2025, where we expect another surge in inflation, assuming a complete end of protective actions.
The expected timeline for potential interest rate changes is consistently moving. Not long ago, the start of decreases in 2024 was very likely. Now this scenario has become unrealistic. It seems that the first interest rate cuts will appear at the earliest in mid-2025 – the moment when inflation starts to fall again.
Bartosz Wałecki, Analyst at Michael / Ström Dom Maklerski.
Source: https://ceo.com.pl/inflacja-cpi-w-polsce-na-zakrecie-45969
