In December 2023, the consumer sentiment index in Poland slightly decreased to -3 units. However, the index significantly increased throughout the year. It was 13 points negative in January and dropped to 17 points below the “neutral” level in March. The sentiment strongly stabilized from May and this trend maintained until the end of the year. This data comes from the Consumer Sentiment Barometer developed by GfK– An NIQ Company.
The Consumer Sentiment Barometer by GfK – An NIQ Company, a synthetic indicator illustrating current moods of Poles in terms of consumer attitudes, amounted to -3 points in December 2023, indicating a drop of 1.7 units compared to the previous month. The crucial factor is the long-term trend of the barometer, which has remained relatively stable since May 2023. Before that, the index experienced significant fluctuations, even several points in a single month.
At the same time, a slight improvement in consumer sentiment can be observed in the EU average, where the average result increased by 1.5 points from the previous month to -16, thus 13 units lower than in Poland.
GfK – An NIQ Company data indicate that in December, key parameters of the barometer slightly worsened, except for one aspect – the future economic situation of the country, which Poles now see slightly more optimistic than a month ago. The evaluation of the current and future condition of household budgets performed notably worst compared to November. These categories influenced the barometer, which, instead of approaching zero, slightly moved away from it.
Continuing fears about a potential increase in prices and the collapse of the job market strongly affect the negative barometer result. About 82% of respondents expect prices to increase in the coming months, with most believing that the rate of increase will be the same or smaller than before. At the same time, 1/3 of Poles fear that the unemployment rate in the country will rise within the next 12 months.
“When the barometer nearly hit zero in November, most analysts and economists expected an inevitable shift to the positive by the end of the year. The pleasant, positive atmosphere of the holidays and the coming New Year, conducive to increasing consumption, was not enough. The political change in our country makes some happy and others worried. Inflation is still too high to get closer to zero quickly. We are still far off pre-pandemic barometer levels. But isthat reason for concern? Not necessarily, especially when we see how massive the increase in consumer sentiment has been over the course of the year and how much Poland’s result is currently ahead of the EU average. Maintaining this level will satisfy the entire market, and certainly retailers and manufacturers”, says Barbara Lewicka, Senior Director at GfK An NIQ Company.
The study was conducted in the period 8-13 December 2023 as part of e-Bus multifaceted omnibus study using the CAWI method (computer-assisted interviews with respondents using a questionnaire provided on the internet) on a quota-based, subject-representative national sample of n=1000 people. The structure of the respondents was selected by maintaining the distribution of selected socio-demographic parameters reflecting the distribution of these characteristics in the general population.
