The key event of the week was the meeting of the Polish central bank. As expected, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) left interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive time. Thus, the main rate remains at 5.75%. The Monetary Policy Council (RPP) recognizes that there is a revival in the Polish economy and a decrease in consumer inflation, but the reduction of the basic component of inflation is proceeding somewhat more slowly. The statement from the Council and the subsequent conference with the head of the NBP, A. Glapiński, indicate that although a decrease in inflation is expected in the coming months, there is no need to rush to further adjust monetary policy. The decision will depend on incoming data. The March forecast will also be significant.
November data from German industry was disappointing. The number of new orders increased less than expected (0.3% month-on-month (m/m) compared to estimates of 1% m/m), then industrial production fell instead of the expected increase (-0.7% m/m compared to estimates of 0.2% m/m). Consumer inflation in the USA accelerated more in December than estimated (0.3% m/m compared to expectations of 0.2% m/m and 3.4% year-on-year (y/y) compared to 3.2% y/y). In the core component, m/m ended in line with forecasts (0.3%), and the slowdown in y/y growth was slightly less compared to estimates (3.9% vs. 3.8%).
This week, the euro exchange rate fluctuated in the range of 1.091-1.100 USD/EUR against the dollar, and on Friday morning it was quoted at 1.097 USD/EUR. The currency pair of the Polish zloty and the euro was mainly quoted in the range of 4.33-4.36 PLN/EUR. In relation to the dollar, the zloty oscillated in the range of 3.95-3.99 PLN/USD.
