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Poland’s Economic Recovery in 2024 After a Challenging 2023

ECONOMYPoland's Economic Recovery in 2024 After a Challenging 2023

The year 2023 was rather poor for the Polish economy. Although it seemed that 2022 – when a full-scale war broke out in Ukraine – would be the worst economically, Poland was still resilient, but it was in 2023 that significant inflation growth was observed. In the first quarter of 2023, inflation exceeded 18%. Consumers had become much more sensitive and restrained their purchases – as a result, retail sales and household consumption were falling, and at the same time, companies produced less, mainly due to the increased risk in foreign markets. Poland’s most important trading partner – Germany, but also other Western European countries – fell into a recession or significant economic slowdown. This was also reflected in the low dynamics of economic growth in Poland in 2023, which is estimated at only 0.6% of GDP. This is the lowest pace in this century – apart from the pandemic recession in 2020.

– What economic data should we expect in 2024? The biggest threat remains what is happening in foreign markets – said Grzegorz Sielewicz, chief economist of COFACE in the Central and Eastern Europe region, to – We can see poor results of the German economy, but also slowly reviving other Western European economies. Many question marks remain, when it comes to the world’s major economies – like the US or China – where there has been no improvement. Especially in China it can be noticed that the main engines of economic growth are still quite weak. However, in Poland, we can say that according to our estimates, economic growth will reach 2.8%. This is a significant improvement compared to 2023 – which will be mainly due to the domestic situation and household consumption. We also hope for increased corporate investment. However, let’s remember that the Polish economy can achieve a higher growth – in the range of about 4-5% GDP – Sielewicz points out.

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