The supply of developer apartments in the seven largest markets in Poland currently exceeds 52 thousand units. This result is 50% higher than a year ago. The number of apartments introduced to the market has been greater than the number of those sold for the eighth consecutive month. In cities such as Łódź, Poznań, Wrocław, and Katowice, the primary market is already dealing with oversupply. Both buyers and property development companies await an external impulse that would stimulate demand again.
Data from Otodom Analytics reveals that developers in the seven main cities have sold nearly 2,8 thousand apartments, a similar result to July. However, this figure is roughly half that of the previous year. Corrected data indicates that the developer market finished August with around 2,6 -2,7 thousand sold apartments. Compared to July, sale of new apartments dropped slightly (by less than 0.5%), whereas observed annually, it declined by a startling 43%. In August, over 3,6 thousand new apartments were introduced to the market, 750 less than in July and 800 more than in August 2023.
According to Katarzyna Kuniewicz, Head of Research at Otodom Analytics, August was similar to July on the housing market in the seven largest cities. The threshold of three thousand sold units again proved unreachable for developers. Moreover, the downward trend in apartment sales continues, and a sense of anticipation can be felt in sales offices, waiting for an impulse that will once again stimulate the demand side. Both developers and individual customers are waiting for change that will come from outside the housing market.
Warsaw saw the most new apartments sold in August at 881, accounting for 31% of all sales in the seven key markets. Kraków was second with 452 units sold. In the Tri-city and Wrocław, sales reached 300-400 units, while in Łódź and Poznań they were at close to 300. In Katowice, the smallest market of the analyzed cities, developers sold 151 apartments.
Despite having the best result among the largest markets in August, Warsaw noted both monthly and annual sales declines. Sales in the capital dropped by 16% from July and almost 50% from August last year. Wrocław and Łódź also saw lower sales in these two periods, by 9% and 5% respectively from the previous month, and by 55% and 18% compared to August 2023. Since August of the previous year, fewer apartments have also been sold in the Tri-city and Kraków (by 44-48%), Katowice (by 29%), and Poznań (by 14%). However, these cities recorded a monthly increase in sales, with the largest in Katowice (84%) and the smallest in Kraków (6%).
Currently, Łódź, Poznań, Wrocław, and Katowice are threatened by oversupply. Lists in all seven markets were smaller than in the previous month. Otodom Analytics data suggests that more new apartments were introduced to the markets in Wrocław, Tri-City, and Warsaw than in July. The other four cities saw declines. Compared to August of the previous year, the number of listings decreased only in Łódź and Kraków. The offer in Warsaw exceeded 12.3 thousand apartments and represents 24% of all listings. Second is Łódź, with nearly 8.8 thousand apartments for sale, followed closely by Wrocław and Poznań (almost 7.5 thousand each). Kraków developers offer slightly fewer units – over 7.2 thousand apartments. In the Tri-city this number is close to 5.6 thousand, whereas in Katowice it’s almost 3.6 thousand.
During the past year, all analyzed cities have seen an increase in apartments offered by property developers. The smallest change was noted in the Tri-City, where the offer rose by 3%. On the other markets, double-digit growth rates were observed. Since August 2023, supply has increased by 17% in Katowice, 46% in Warsaw, 66% in Poznań, 69% in Wrocław, 73% in Łódź, and 83% in Kraków.
Prices for apartments have seen slight stabilization. They rose slightly from July in the Tri-City and Wrocław, while they fell in Warsaw, Kraków, Poznań, and Łódź – but in no city did the change exceed 1%. The biggest difference was observed in Katowice, where the price per square meter rose nearly 1.5% in a month. In an annual perspective, all seven markets saw an increase in the average price per square meter. The most significant shift was in Łódź, where apartments became almost 20% more expensive. Warsaw, Wrocław, Kraków, and Katowice followed with increases between 11-13%.
Katarzyna Kuniewicz summarizes that although we can see stabilization in the average apartment prices, we have yet to encounter the price cuts anticipated by customers. There is a clearly discernible decline in the average size of the apartments being introduced for sale – now being around 55 square meters. She urges caution, noting that apartments introduced for sale in August and September are 3-4 square meters smaller than those already on offer. As a result, the apartments on offer from developers average between 51-52 square meters, apparently a new standard for the primary market.
Source: https://ceo.com.pl/rynek-mieszkan-deweloperskich-zmaga-sie-z-nadpodaza-sprzedaz-nowych-lokali-spada-o-43-w-ujeciu-rocznym-37889
