Just over two months remain until the U.S. presidential elections. Current polls give a slight advantage to the Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris, who pledged, among other things, continued support for Ukraine in its war with Russia during the convention in Chicago last week. She positioned herself in opposition to her rival, Donald Trump, who previously questioned the USA’s membership in NATO, and on returning to the White House, might cut off further financial aid for Ukraine. “The U.S. elections, however, will not only influence the further course of the war in Ukraine but also Polish politics and the presidential elections in 2025,” notes University of Warsaw expert, Dr. hab. Jarosław Szczepański.
The U.S. presidential elections will take place on November 5th. After Joe Biden withdrew from the re-election race, the former president, Donald Trump, will compete with the Democratic candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris. Current polls give her a slight lead, although too small to guarantee a victory.
“The results of the U.S. elections are an unknown variable in terms of the further development of the situation in Ukraine. The war is ongoing, and all candidates pledge some solutions, but no one indicates what they would involve, no one delineates a clear path to this solution. As for Donald Trump, we can probably expect attempts to freeze this conflict and exert pressure on both Russia and Ukraine to extinguish this conflict. With Kamala Harris, we don’t know what will happen. Biden would probably like to continue this war to further weaken Russia, support Ukraine, and build his position as a leader of the free world, partly in line with the Cold War narrative to which he was accustomed during his political youth. However, Kamala Harris is a significantly younger candidate than Biden and Trump,” says Dr. hab. Jarosław Szczepański to Newseria Biznes agency.
Last week in Chicago, the 4-day Democratic Party Convention was held, where Kamala Harris promised, among other things, continued support for Ukraine. “As president, I will stand firmly with Ukraine and our NATO allies,” Harris emphasized. She called her rival, Donald Trump, an “unserious man,” whose potential victory would have serious consequences. The Democratic candidate reminded everyone that Trump threatened to abandon NATO and emphasized that he would not protect those countries from potential aggression by Russia, which do not allocate at least 2% of their GDP for defense.
Donald Trump, who is fighting to return to the White House, has long announced that if he is reelected, he will “end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours”. During last week’s Republican rally in Arizona, Trump won the support of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. – an independent candidate who decided to withdraw from the presidential race. “Donald Trump told me he won’t put any more money into the war in Ukraine because we can spend that money in the U.S.,” Kennedy Jr. announced at a rally in Arizona.
“It seems that the U.S. elections are also crucial in terms of Polish policy,” evaluates the University of Warsaw expert. Specifically, these elections are critical for the campaign before the presidential elections planned in Poland in 2025. “Whoever will be in the White House then may decide how this campaign will be conducted,” observes Dr. hab. Jarosław Szczepański. “It can be assumed that if Donald Trump wins, the conservative-right wing party would get some support from the American administration, even if just to maintain the specific relations that Trump managed to build with the previous administration in Poland. But if Kamala Harris wins, right-wing seems unlikely to receive support.”
In his opinion, no risk of worsening mutual relations between Poland and the United States exists. “We can probably expect a continuation of Biden’s policy in this scenario, however, Kamala Harris – of all the candidates we’ve had in recent months – is the most unpredictable. We actually don’t know what foreign policy she will pursue. Paradoxically, after Donald Trump, who can be quite a unique president, we know what to expect, while Kamala Harris remains an unknown,” the expert assesses.
