The NBP’s reference rate remained unchanged at 5.75%. This decision aligns with market consensus, and it was generally not expected to differ. The arguments for maintaining the rates at their current level are primarily due to uncertainty regarding the level of inflation in the second half of the year and its subsequent sustained decline to the target.
Additionally, the labor market remains in good condition. Data on wages show a strong nominal increase, which may soon translate into the anticipated rebound in consumption. The scenario of no rate cuts in 2024 seems increasingly likely to materialize.
Bartosz Wałecki, Analyst at Michael / Ström Brokerage House
