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Mixed Economic Data from Poland and Positive PMI Surprises in the Eurozone and the USA

ECONOMYMixed Economic Data from Poland and Positive PMI Surprises in the Eurozone and the USA

– This week brought somewhat mixed data from the Polish economy. Industry surged by 7.9% year-on-year in April, following a revised decline of -5.6% year-on-year in March, the highest growth since September 2022. Data from the past two months suggest that the recovery continued in Q1 and Q2. However, labor market statistics in Poland slightly reinforced concerns. April employment in the private sector unexpectedly fell by 0.4% year-on-year (market estimate -0.3% year-on-year), while wage growth unexpectedly slowed to 11.3% year-on-year (12.0% year-on-year in March, market estimate 12.1% year-on-year). April retail sales also turned out to be a disappointment, rising only by 4.3% year-on-year (market estimates 5.1% year-on-year).

– Preliminary PMI activity estimates from Germany and the Eurozone were a pleasant surprise. In May, improvements were noted in both the service and manufacturing sectors. Aggregated PMI indicators in the Eurozone (52.3 points) and Germany (52.2 points) are at annual highs. The pace of growth in service activity continues to rise, and the manufacturing sector shows signs of an imminent recovery. According to ECB President Ch. Lagarde, inflation in the Eurozone has been contained. The first interest rate cut in June is practically certain. PMI activity in the USA increased significantly in May, mainly due to improvements in services, with the aggregated index at its highest since April 2022 (54.4 points).

– This week, the euro weakened against the dollar from 1.088 USD/EUR to 1.081 USD/EUR (Friday morning). Against the euro, the Polish złoty mainly moved within the range of 4.25 – 4.275 PLN/EUR. Against the dollar, the złoty weakened and was slightly below 3.95 PLN/USD on Friday morning.


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