According to the latest Mastercard Economic Outlook report, the global economy is expected to accelerate, reaching a growth rate of 3.2% in 2025 compared to 3.1% in 2024. Experts also predict that global inflation will decline to 3.2%. In Poland, the forecasted economic growth next year is projected to be around 3.4%, while consumer price inflation will reach 4.5%. Meanwhile, real consumer spending is expected to increase by 3.5% compared to the previous year.
The Mastercard Economics Institute, using aggregated and anonymized data, publicly available information, and economic forecasting models, has identified the key factors that will shape the global economic landscape in 2025. After analyzing data from 74 countries, including Poland, five key insights have been highlighted.
Moderate Growth Acceleration in Europe
Experts predict that the global economy will accelerate to a 3.2% growth rate in 2025, up from 3.1% in 2024. While inflation in most European countries is likely to approach central bank targets as service sector inflation decreases, economic growth will need to navigate both the positive effects of lower interest rates and the negative effects of tighter fiscal policies and uncertainties related to global trade.
European Consumers Remain Resilient
Forecasts indicate that unemployment rates in Europe will remain at historically low levels or slightly increase in 2025. Real disposable income growth (the difference between wage growth and inflation) is expected to stay positive, reinforcing the trend of strong consumer demand. Lower interest rates may ease financial pressure on households with variable-rate mortgages and reduce their need to save.
Alternatives to Iconic Destinations Are Gaining Popularity
European consumers are becoming more price-sensitive when it comes to travel expenditures. They are increasingly opting for cheaper or less crowded alternatives to popular tourist destinations. For example, Dublin is experiencing higher growth in hotel transactions compared to London, while Copenhagen surpasses Amsterdam in this regard. Similarly, Stockholm, known as the “Venice of the North,” is growing in popularity compared to the Italian “city on water,” and Seville serves as an appealing alternative to Madrid. Regional travel, especially within Europe, dominates cross-border hotel expenditures.
Consumers Continue to Prioritize Experiences
Budgets for experiences and memorable moments remain high. However, falling interest rates are expected to shift consumer spending patterns, increasing expenditures on items such as electronics, furniture, and household appliances. European consumers continue to seek good deals, with innovations and digitalization in retail providing them with a wider selection and helping businesses improve efficiency.
The Rise of the “SHEconomy”
The global labor market, including Europe, is seeing significant growth in the number of women returning to the workforce, a phenomenon known as the “SHEconomy.” Nearly all analyzed European economies have recorded a dynamic increase in female labor force participation, driven by more flexible work arrangements, equal opportunities, career development, and new job creation in sectors such as education and healthcare. In Poland, the labor force participation rate for women aged 25-54 increased by 5.32 percentage points in 2023 compared to 2019.
Natalia Lechmanova, Chief Economist at the Mastercard Economics Institute, commented on the findings:
“Europe’s economic growth will accelerate slightly in 2025, driven in part by interest rate cuts. However, tighter fiscal policies and significant uncertainty in the trade sector will pose challenges. Consumers will remain resilient, and consumption growth will continue. Despite moderate price sensitivity, shoppers are likely to prioritize spending that provides not only material value but also unique experiences and memorable moments.”
The Economic Outlook 2025 report is based on a comprehensive analysis of aggregated and anonymized data, along with external sources, examining key trends in 74 countries worldwide, with a focus on Europe as a primary region for the upcoming year.
