October in the seven largest housing markets in Poland marked the tenth consecutive month in which the current supply exceeded demand, and the developer’s offer in the largest Polish cities exceeded 53,000 apartments. According to forecasts by Otodom Analytics, sales in October may reach 3.7 thousand, representing a few percent increase compared to September. Does this mean a steady trend related to the upcoming end of the year?
Development companies have once again put more apartments up for sale in new investments than were bought at the same time. Therefore, it’s not surprising that the offer of developer’s apartments in the largest Polish cities (Katowice, Krakow, Łódź, Poznań, Tri-City, Warsaw and Wrocław) exceeded 53,000 apartments. Despite the increase in the number of apartments on offer, the sales pace has improved due to the relatively good October sales, which – as the forecast performed for Otodom Analytics indicates – will reach 3.7 thousand after summarizing the monthly monitoring.
Apartment sales may accelerate towards the end of the year
It is already known that in October, the sales of developer’s apartments in the seven largest developer markets was a few percent higher than a month ago (we compare to adjusted results from September). This optimistic start to the last quarter of this year strengthens forecasts, stating that the sale of developer’s apartments in the fourth quarter will be better than recorded by Otodom Analytics in the second and third quarters and will exceed 10,000 premises.
“An analysis of the average apartment prices offered in October in the seven largest markets indicates a further stabilization of prices for apartments built by development companies. However, it is worth noting that in October, average prices stabilized not only month to month, but also in relation to prices from a year ago there was a symbolic change. In October 2024, the prices of apartments offered by development companies were 9% higher than the average prices in October 2023, which means that for the first time in 15 months, the annual price increase was less than 10%” – explains Katarzyna Kuniewicz, director of research at Otodom Analytics.
After a weak holiday period (in July, 2600 apartments were sold, in August 2500 apartments), especially compared to last year’s results, when the situation on the market was significantly affected by the Safe credit 2%, the downward trend is beginning to reverse. A good result in September was not just the effect of post-holiday purchases when customers postponed transactions, seeing how large the choice of apartments on the market is. October showed that the current offer is beginning to meet the expectations of those looking for and these additionally have good negotiating conditions in the last months of the year, they can use the appearing promotions e.g. on garage spaces.
Increased buyer protection not only in the event of bankruptcy
It is worth reminding that at the beginning of July, the transition period of the amendment to the law on the introduction of the Developers Fund Guarantee ended. With the entry into force of these provisions, an additional insurance mechanism for payments made by the flat buyers towards the apartments built by developers whose sales started after July 2, 2024 was launched.
The transition period has ended and currently every apartment bought from the developer is insured not only by the housing escrow account, but also in the Developers Guarantee Fund. The main task of the DFG is to protect property purchasers from partial or total loss of money paid during the construction process, and you can apply for the payout not only in the situation of bankruptcy announced by the developer.
“We have information about several payouts from the fund, which were due to the developer’s failure to meet the deadline for transferring property ownership, which should occur during 120 days from the signing of the contract. After this time, the buyer can apply to the Developers’ Guarantee Fund for a refund of the funds that he paid to the developer. This is the most important function of the DFG because the buyer does not have to go to court to wait for years for a refund. Now, the entire procedure can take up to six months. This gives the buyer the opportunity to recover the funds within a few months and then buy another apartment” – says Katarzyna Kuniewicz, director of research at Otodom Analytics.
Even in the situation of buying a ready-made apartment, when we do not immediately enter into a contract with the transfer of ownership, insurance is activated in the Developers Guarantee Fund.
Source: https://ceo.com.pl/pazdziernik-na-rynku-mieszkaniowym-wieksza-oferta-deweloperow-wyzsza-sprzedaz-stabilizacja-cen-59351
