An analysis of 69.1 thousand prices from 31.8 thousand retail stores has demonstrated that everyday shopping in July this year has become on average 3.9% more expensive year-on-year. Furthermore, the data shows that the momentum of price increases has been consistently rising in recent months. Of the 17 monitored categories, 13 have recorded an increase. This time, non-alcoholic beverages have risen the most – by 15.6% year-on-year. Also at the top of the list for price hikes are food additives with an increase of 11.2% year-on-year, sweets and desserts – 9.3%, household chemicals – 8.7%, as well as bread – 6.4%. Meanwhile, 4 categories have recorded price drops. The biggest drop concerned fat-based products, falling by 8.1% year-on-year. Negative results were also noted for bulk products – 7.4%, vegetables – 5.6%, as well as pet food – 0.5%.
According to the regularly issued report titled “RETAIL PRICE INDEX”, authored by UCE RESEARCH and Merito WSB University, based on an analysis of 69.1 thousand prices obtained from 31.8 thousand stores, everyday shopping in July this year has become on average 3.9% more expensive year-on-year. For comparison, a year-on-year increase calculated using the same methodology was 3.1% in June, 2.9% in May, and 2.4% in April. This indicates that the momentum of price increases in stores continues to rise.
“This observation is consistent with the general increase in inflation observed in recent months. These changes are not particularly surprising for economists. We can safely say that there is a slow but clear reversal of the trend since April, the main reason for this was the defrosting of VAT rates on food,” comments Dr. Tomasz Kopyściański from Merito WSB University.
In July, 13 out of the 17 analyzed categories recorded an increase. At the forefront of price hikes sit non-alcoholic beverages with a year-on-year increase of 15.6%. In June, they increased by 4.9%, and in May – by 6.3%. “The key factor here was the demand for non-alcoholic beverages during the summer, high-temperature period. The increase in the cost of plastic packaging also plays a role in the rise in prices in this category. There is also higher costs for certain fruits, such as oranges, causing an increase in the price of juice production, among other things,” says Dr. Tomasz Kopyściański.
Following in second place in the ranking are food additives (ketchup, mayonnaise, mustard, and spices) with an increase of 11.2% on year. They increased by 6.2% in June, and by 5.9% in May. “The increasing dynamics of food additive prices are due to increased production costs. The forecasts for this are not positive. Energy will get more expensive by the end of the year. Moreover, the prices of raw materials such as tomatoes and mustard are increasing, as are packaging costs, which also affect this category,” explains Prof. Sławomir Jankiewicz from Merito WSB University.
In third place are sweets and desserts with an increase of 9.3% year-on-year. They increased by 11.2% a month earlier, and in May – by 12.9% year-on-year. “Deteriorating environmental conditions are negatively affecting the raw materials used in this industry. In addition, the rising cost of energy and wages and growing demand for sugar and cocoa while supply remains stable, continue to maintain these high prices. Looking at climate change, we should not expect an improvement in crop conditions or a change in energy prices, so products in this category will continue to be expensive,” insists Prof. Sławomir Jankiewicz.
Fourth in the ranking is household chemistry with an average annual increase of 8.7%. In June and May, it became more expensive by 9.2% and 9.7%, respectively. “The prices of household chemicals have become very stable in recent months, nevertheless, they are still high. Unfortunately, this category is likely to remain among the most expensive. Its results largely depend on energy and gas prices, which may significantly increase at the end of the year,” explains Dr. Tomasz Kopyściański.
Fifth in the ranking is bread, which has risen in price by 6.4% year-on-year. In June, it recorded an increase of 5.3%, and in May – 4.9%. “The increase in grain prices in the agricultural collection was significant in this category, recorded in May and June. However, the situation in this regard has now stabilised considerably. In July, wheat and rye even became cheaper – by about 10% year-on-year. This creates the prospect of slowing down bread price increases in the coming months. However, in the longer term, gas consumption costs will be a key factor. There is therefore a risk of price increases next year,” warns Dr. Kopyściański from WSB Merito.
Following closely behind the TOP5 are personal hygiene products with an increase of 6.2% year-on-year. They rose by 5.1% and 3.1%, respectively, in June and May. Fruits are also on the increase with a result of 3.8% year-on-year. In the previous two months, they increased by 1.8% and 2.2% year-on-year. Prices for dairy products also rose – by 3.6% year-on-year. The previous increases were 1.1% and 1%.
“The increase in fruit prices is due to limited supply, which in many cases is still the result of spring frosts and a drop in yields in orchards. Meanwhile, the reason for the stable prices of dairy products is the high supply that has been present on the domestic market for many months. The consequence of this is low milk prices in collection,” says Dr. Tomasz Kopyściański.
Prices also increased for children’s items – by 3.5% year-on-year. In the previous months, year-on-year increases in this category were 1.5% and 4.2%. Recently, fish prices have risen by 2.8%, while previously – by 4.8% and 0.5%. In July, sausages made a leap by 2.3% year-on-year. Previous increases were at the level of 4.6% and 1.2% year-on-year. Meat jumped by 2.2% year-on-year. The two previous increases were 0.9% and 1.9% respectively. The ranking of increasingly expensive categories is closed by stimulants (tea, coffee, beer, vodka) with a result of 1% year-on-year. In June they increased by 4.7% year-on-year, and in May – by 2.6% year-on-year.
“Price increases in most categories result from an increase in production costs. In the case of sausages, they are higher than in the meat category, hence their prices rise faster. Additionally, logistics prices are on the rise. Fish get more expensive due to fuel and energy costs, transport, and wage increases. Weather fluctuations, environmental pollution, and legislative changes related to protection and farming must also be taken into account,” lists Prof. Sławomir Jankiewicz from Merito WSB University.
Meanwhile, 4 categories were on a decrease. In June and May it was the same. In July, year-on-year, the prices of fat-based products decreased the most – by 8.1% year-on-year. The previous falls were 11.2% and 10%. “We have been observing price relief in this category for many months now. The main reason is last year’s very good level of global oilseed crops. This year, however, a slight decrease in production is forecasted, which may result in slight price increases, although rather in the longer term,” reassures Dr. Tomasz Kopyściański.
Also year-on-year, the prices of bulk products decreased – by 7.4%. Previous falls were 2% and 3.6%. Vegetables – 5.6% year-on-year, are also in the negative. Previously, negative results were at the level of 5.1% and 3.3% year-on-year. The least decrease year-on-year was for pet food – by 0.5%. In June and May, their prices fell by 2.4% and 8.1% respectively.
Research Method Description
The data comes from a regular report titled “RETAIL PRICE INDEX” (produced monthly for nearly 7 years), authored by UCE RESEARCH and Merito WSB University (formerly Higher Banking Schools). The analysis shows the average price value, listed month by month and year by year. In the latest version, the results from July 2024 and the corresponding period in 2023 were compared. This involved 17 categories and over 100 products of everyday use most often chosen by consumers. Altogether, 69.1 thousand retail prices from 31.8 thousand stores belonging to 52 commercial chains were compared. The study included all discounters, hypermarkets, supermarkets, convenience stores, and cash & carry networks on the market, reaching most consumers in Poland with their offer.
Source: https://ceo.com.pl/ceny-coraz-bardziej-rosna-w-lipcu-na-sklepowych-polkach-bylo-o-39-proc-drozej-niz-rok-temu-95450
