Today, we will learn the latest decision of the Monetary Policy Council regarding interest rates. The market consensus suggests that, as in previous meetings, the rates will remain unchanged at 5.75%. It appears that the Monetary Policy Council will not find any arguments for another rate cut for quite some time, comments expert Tomasz Gessner, Chief Analyst at Tavex.
Market observers will likely pay close attention to the press conference of the President of the National Bank of Poland, where references should be made to the preliminary inflation data for May, published last week. It was expected that inflation would rise from 2.4% to 2.8%; however, the actual increase was much smaller, at just 2.5%. This means that inflation has remained within the National Bank of Poland’s target for the third consecutive month.
However, it should be noted that the anti-inflation shield on energy prices will be removed from June, which will boost the inflation rate in the second half of the year, likely bringing it to around 4% by the end of the year. This, in turn, means that the Monetary Policy Council must remain cautious when considering any potential interest rate cuts. Currently, market expectations allow for the possibility of such a cut no earlier than the beginning of next year.
