House prices remain high, but there were no abrupt increases in Q4 2023.
Although prices for second-hand houses are still high, the temperature in this segment is much lower than in the heated apartment market. According to the data from Nieruchomosci-online.pl, in Q4 2023, among all provincial cities, only in Bialystok and Torun was there a stronger increase in average asking prices.
It’s expensive, but there are no shocking increases
In Q4 2023, the price situation in the second-hand house segment was similar to that of Q3. Back then, nearly half of the provincial cities did not record an increase in the average asking price. This time, the increases bypassed 8 of the 18 regional capitals.
According to Nieruchomosci-online.pl data, in the fourth quarter last year, the most significant increases in average asking prices for detached houses from the secondary market were observed in Bialystok (7.5% q/q) and in Torun (8.1% q/q). In the other provincial cities, the expectations of those selling changed not so much compared to the third quarter. In Olsztyn and Szczecin, the average asking price rose by 4% over the quarter, and in Warsaw, Gdansk, Krakow, Katowice, Opole, and Zielona Gora, it increased by only 1-2%.
In the fourth quarter of last year, the average price decrease was also recorded in Kielce (almost 4% q/q), Bydgoszcz (1.5% ), and Rzeszow (1%). Stability can be spoken of in the case of Wroclaw, Lodz, Poznan, Lublin, and Gorzow Wlkp. (fluctuations less than 1%).
– Of course, the expectations of sellers remain high, but unlike the apartment market, house prices rise less frequently and not as dynamically. Our portal data indicates that only four cities consistently maintain an upward price path. These are Krakow, Warsaw, Torun, and Opole – where the average asking price increased in the second, third, and fourth quarters last year. It’s also worth remembering that the most attractive price offers have already disappeared from the market – says Rafał Bieńkowski from Nieruchomosci-online.pl.
– The house market was characterized by some stabilization over the last year. Although, of course, the situation is not black and white and much depended on the specificity of the local market. There are regions where houses were selling at a decent, stable level. This especially applied to buildings with a smaller area and qualifying under the limits of the government support program – he adds.
The supply remains stable
In Q4, the interest in house listings for sale is usually lower than in Q3, and this time was no exception. As shown by the analysis of the number of contacts, that people seeking property made with sellers via Nieruchomosci-online.pl, the level of interest in advertisements was 19% lower q/q.
This significant difference is not only due to the seasonality, but also to the Safe Mortgage 2% program, which also boosted interest in this category of property in Q3. Yes, the support for mortgages was mainly a stimulus for the apartment market, but the house segment also benefited to some extent. Some second-hand houses, mainly on smaller markets, fit into the pricing assumptions of the government program.
As an aside, it should be noted that Q4 proved to be even weaker in terms of the level of interest in advertisements than Q1 and Q2 2023.
– From the reports of many brokers who took part in our sentiment survey in Q4, it appears that houses priced well above 1 million PLN are hard to sell. Especially older ones, finished in the aesthetics of the 90s and 00s, not to mention even older buildings. People are most often looking for houses with a smaller area, often outside the city, but well communicated. Buyers are also very concerned about the cost of maintaining the property due to worries about energy consumption. Therefore, it is hard to find buyers for poorly insulated, under-invested houses – adds Rafał Bieńkowski.
On the other hand, supply in the house category remains stable. This situation has been practically maintained since spring. In Q4, the number of active listings on Nieruchomosci-online.pl was only 1.9% lower compared to Q3.
