According to preliminary estimates by the Central Statistical Office, seasonally unadjusted GDP in the first quarter of this year increased by 1.9% in real terms compared to the same period last year, which saw a decrease of 0.4%. This result is slightly higher than market forecasts, which predicted a growth of 1.8%.
The GDP growth is occurring despite the very weak industrial sector and only gradually accelerating consumption. This is likely due to the positive trade balance, as the first three months of 2024 saw a surplus. However, this factor will probably lose its positive impact on economic growth in the coming quarters, as the trade balance is on a declining trend.
Nevertheless, there is a chance that our optimistic scenario will come true, in which investments will be in better condition than expected. Thanks to funds from the National Recovery Plan, which supported the state budget, and investments previously carried out with funds from the Polish Development Fund, there should not be significant delays in spending the received EU funds.
