Experts forecast an increase in Poland’s GDP in 2024. A factor that will negatively impact GDP for most of the year is trade exchange. It’s essential to consider the German economy, where industrial production is declining. Polish exports are 27% dependent on what happens in Germany. As a result, Poland’s GDP is unlikely to be among the highest growth rates, but the economic leap Poland has made within the European Union, along with the gap filled by our own funds despite the lack of Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) funds for nearly two years, demonstrates the strength of the Polish economy. It is crucial to ensure that RRF funds continue to bridge Poland’s development gap with other EU countries. GDP growth across Europe will increasingly rely on innovation, process automation, and productivity enhancement.
“What happened in the Polish economy in 2023 will determine what 2024 might look like economically,” said Mariusz Zielonka, an economic expert at the Lewiatan Confederation, to eNewsroom.pl. “The main components that will likely support Poland’s GDP, in my opinion, are consumption, which will probably grow by around 3% throughout 2024. An element that is quite uncertain but could significantly impact our GDP is the RRF funds. However, after a record year in 2023, with an investment growth of around 8.4%, investments might be significantly lower in 2024, possibly around 0%. This is because two EU funding programs overlapped in 2023. If RRF funds start to be effectively utilized in the third and fourth quarters, investments might end the year positively, which should ultimately translate to economic growth of around 2.4%-2.5%,” predicts Zielonka.
