Preliminary data from BIG DATA RynekPierwotny.pl reveals that December 2024 did not bring any significant changes in the average price per square meter of new apartments offered by developers in Poland’s seven largest metropolitan areas. However, it is now clear that last year’s leader in price hikes was Wrocław, where the average price per square meter increased by a staggering 12%. In contrast, new apartments in Warsaw saw the smallest increase, at just 5%.
Nationwide Trends in 2024
“While the average price per square meter of apartments in developers’ offerings rose in all metropolitan areas in 2024, it’s worth noting that in five of these cities, the increase was single-digit—something that hasn’t happened in the last six years,” explains Marek Wielgo, an expert at RynekPierwotny.pl.
Wrocław (approx. 14,700 PLN/sq. m) claimed the top spot with a 12% increase in average price per square meter, followed by Łódź (nearly 11,500 PLN/sq. m), where prices rose by 10%. Poznań (approx. 13,300 PLN/sq. m) ranked third with an 8% increase. Other cities saw more moderate growth:
- Tricity (approx. 16,000 PLN/sq. m): +7%
- Kraków (approx. 16,500 PLN/sq. m): +6%
- Upper Silesian-Zagłębie Metropolis (approx. 11,200 PLN/sq. m): +6%
- Warsaw (approx. 17,700 PLN/sq. m): +5% (remaining the most expensive city).
Wrocław’s Unprecedented Growth
Wrocław is the only city where the average price per square meter has grown at a double-digit rate over the past six years. Until 2024, Kraków followed a similar trend, but last year saw a sharp deceleration in price growth. Warsaw also experienced the smallest annual price increase in six years, despite its occasional single-digit growth in the past.
Encouragingly, the second half of 2024 saw a stabilization in price increases. Preliminary data indicates that in December, the average price in all major cities either remained at November’s level or dropped slightly, such as a 1% decrease in Tricity.
2025: Stabilization or Further Growth?
Could 2025 bring stabilization—or even a slight decrease—in the average price per square meter of new apartments in major cities?
“This could happen if developers increase the supply of apartments affordable for the average mortgage borrower. The end of last year showed that this scenario is possible, as evidenced by markets like Warsaw, Kraków, Łódź, and Poznań,” says Marek Wielgo.
However, he does not rule out a less favorable scenario for potential buyers: an increase in supply focused mainly on luxury apartments targeting affluent clients. In such a case, the average price per square meter would rise again. This occurred in November in Tricity, where the average price jumped by 4% in a single month due to the introduction of units averaging 21,200 PLN per square meter.
Risks in the Construction Sector
Additional risks include a potential surge in construction material and labor costs, driven by overlapping infrastructure projects funded by the National Recovery Plan. Such factors could put further upward pressure on apartment prices.
The future of the Polish housing market in 2025 will depend on a delicate balance of supply and demand, regulatory changes, and broader economic factors influencing construction costs and buyer preferences.
Author: Marek Wielgo
Source: Manager Plus
