In April, core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, stood at 4.1% year-on-year, compared to 4.6% in March, according to the NBP. A few days ago, the GUS confirmed earlier estimates of consumer inflation, which was 2.4% year-on-year in April. Today, the NBP has prepared a summary of four core inflation indicators to help understand the nature of inflation in Poland. The most popular indicator of price growth, excluding food and energy prices, is 4.1% year-on-year.
This is still significant, considering that we expect an increase in the consumer price index in the coming months. If we add to this the maintenance of frozen electricity prices and a gradual, yet inevitable, increase in food prices, it may turn out that the downward trend in core inflation is coming to an end.
Of course, the NBP, along with the Monetary Policy Council, should closely monitor core inflation as it is more deeply rooted in the economy. This reading is another indication that lowering interest rates this year may not be advisable.
