Cocoa prices have reached an all-time high, as seen in chocolate prices. It is now more expensive than copper, and investors have made more money on cocoa than on Bitcoin.
In 2024 alone, cocoa prices have increased by 130%, and over the past 12 months, they have increased by 240%.
“Over 12 months, this is a higher increase than what we observed on Bitcoin,” says Michał Stajniak, an XTB expert, in an interview with MarketNews24.
The price increase was caused by weather conditions in West Africa, particularly in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, which together account for almost 70% of the global supply. Since last year, port deliveries have been 20-30% lower.
For three years, the markets have been dealing with a cocoa deficit, but the 2023-2024 season turned out to be particularly unsuccessful, as the global deficit reached 10%.
“If a 10% deficit applied to crude oil, its price would not be $85 per barrel, it would rise to $200-300,” comments the XTB expert.
Cocoa set a record in late March 2024, exceeding $10,000 per ton.
This price seems so high that investing in dollar contracts for even more expensive cocoa is not a good decision, but the market situation will be known in October, when the main season begins.
“A continuation of the price increase is not excluded, but in my opinion, we are very close to the price peak,” adds M. Stajniak. “Especially taking long positions is associated with a very high risk.”
