Bitcoin surpasses the $100k barrier

The cryptocurrency market is currently experiencing a steep bullish run. The Monetary Policy Council – as in the previous 12 months – has not changed the interest rates and is not expected to change them for at least a few more months. Data from the US have not resulted in a breakthrough in currencies.

Madness on digital money continues

There are processes that not everyone understands, yet they still happen. A good example is the pricing of Bitcoin above 100,000 dollars. Despite being in circulation for well over a decade, it has no practical application, except for the fact that an increasing number of people believe it has high value, which allows it to be bought and sold at increasingly higher prices. Current jumps are driven by a large favorability towards the cryptocurrency market from some representatives of the new president’s administration – with government efficiency department head, Mr. Elon Musk, at the forefront. However, it is worth noting that the pace of growth in digital currencies is recently insane, even for this sector. Bitcoin has gone up nearly 50% in a month, while its market share has fallen at the same time. This means that other cryptocurrencies are increasing in value more strongly.

MPC without surprise

Yesterday’s decision by the Monetary Policy Council was not a surprise. The main interest rate remained unchanged. That makes it the thirteenth consecutive meeting where the rates remained the same. During this time, inflation dropped from 8.2% to 2%, then rose back up to 5%, and is currently sitting at 4.6%. So when can changes be expected? According to media reports, the MPC has projected the start of talks about rate cuts only in March 2025. However, looking at market expectations, one should not confuse the start of talks with the actual date of actions. The WIBOR 6M rate rather points to the second quarter of next year for a 0.25% cut. In addition, NBP’s inflation forecasts suggest that inflation should peak at 6% in the first quarter. There is, however, one important note – this scenario was created before the announcement of energy price freezes until September. Although we do not have the president’s signature yet, if this happens, these forecasts should be updated downwards. This would potentially hasten rate cuts, thus weakening the Polish zloty.

Data from USA

Yesterday, we gained information from across the Atlantic. The ADP report showed a slightly less employment change in the USA than expected. The economic indices for services also performed weaker. Both the ISM and the PMI turned out to be lower than expected. However, it is worth noting that in both cases, there was a clear advantage of optimistic responses, which still gives good signals for the future. Orders for goods also performed better. As a result, investors, seeing both good and bad data, did not lead to significant changes in the world’s main currency pair and for yet another day we are oscillating around the level of 1.05.

Today, you should pay attention in the macroeconomic data schedule to:

• 14:30 – USA – foreign trade balance,
• 14:30 – USA – unemployment claims,
• 15:00 – Poland – NBP president’s speech.

Maciej Przygórzewski – Chief Analyst at InternetowyKantor.pl