Inflation, economic downturn, armed conflict, accidental or intentional use of biological, chemical or nuclear weapons, and public debt – these are the five main risks for Poland mentioned in this year’s “Global Risks Report” by the World Economic Forum. Globally, fears for 2024 are dominated by threats related to misinformation based on artificial intelligence (AI) and societal polarization. In the long term, the biggest challenges remain climate and environmental changes.
The “Global Risks Report” – prepared by the World Economic Forum in collaboration with Marsh McLennan and Zurich Insurance Group – is a review of short- and long-term global threats, aiming at understanding these risks and building resilience against them. The report analyses the most serious challenges potentially arising over the next decade in the context of fast technological changes, economic uncertainty, demography, conflicts and climate change. The report, based on the opinions of over 1,400 risk experts, policymakers and leaders from various industries, identifies misinformation and growing environmental problems as the top global threats in 2024.
Climate change-related risks have been with us for over a decade. Phenomena such as sudden climate change, threats to biodiversity or ecosystems are risks that will surely occupy leading positions in the long term and will dominate the global risk landscape,” says Artur Grześkowiak, President of the Management Board of McLennan in Poland and CEE Region.
While misinformation is considered the biggest short-term global threat, extreme weather events, and critical changes in ecosystems are the key long-term challenge. At the same time, as many as 2/3 of global experts expect an increase in extreme weather events in 2024 (second place among short-term threats to the world).
Based on the respondents’ opinions, extreme weather events, critical changes in terrestrial systems, loss of biodiversity and ecosystem collapse, resource deficiencies and environmental pollution constitute as many as 5 of the 10 most serious threats the world will face in the coming decade.
“Experts increasingly notice the problem of limiting access to natural resources, which may result in the exclusion of some countries or weaker parts of societies,” points out Marcin Zimowski. “The report also shows that more funds should be allocated to research and development in the field of climate change modelling and green transformation. However, we will not be able to achieve our goals in this area if the private and public sectors do not cooperate. There seems to be a certain conflict between experts from both sectors against this background.”
As he points out, the private sector representatives believe that there is still some time for response to climate change and there are more pressing issues on the agenda to be addressed first. Meanwhile, the government sector and non-profit organizations indicate that we have probably already passed the critical point, which means that the damage to the natural environment is rather irreversible.
The expert adds that the risks associated with the environment and climate are already having an increasingly significant impact on the insurance market.
Among the top issues in the Global Risks Report are challenges linked to cybersecurity, which have been heightened by the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) systems.
Concerns for 2024 are dominated by threats related to disinformation based on artificial intelligence and societal polarization. Experts believe that false information combined with social unrest will be in focus due to the upcoming elections in several major world economies.
The report also points out the increasing threat from armed conflict – considered by experts to be one of the five biggest problems in the next two years, and current geopolitical tensions will fuel further conflict. Circa two-thirds of global experts predict that in the next decade a multipolar, fragmented world order will form, in which medium and great powers will compete and establish new rules and norms.
The upcoming years will be marked by continued economic uncertainty and limited economic opportunities, which ranked sixth in the threat ranking for the two-year horizon. The report notes that global collaboration to address these urgent challenges may prove to be insufficient, hence the need for a change in approach to threats and the development of new solutions.
