The CPI inflation rate in December was 6.1% annually. The result was lower than the market consensus (6.5%) and lower than the previous month (6.6%). On a monthly basis, the index increased by 0.1%. The end of the year brought the lowest inflation reading since September 2021. Core inflation also fell, to around 7%.
The reading is a positive surprise, but it does not seem to significantly influence the actions of the Monetary Policy Council (RPP). Still a long way to go to bring inflation back on target. The beginning of the year may bring further slowdown of the index; however, we might experience more increases in the second half of the year. A lot will depend on further administrative decisions, the pace of expected recovery and wage growth.
Bartosz Wałecki, Analyst, Michael / Ström Brokerage House
