The final readings for Poland’s CPI inflation for November have been released, showing higher results than anticipated for both monthly and yearly scales. The year-over-year inflation rate stood at 4.7%, lower than 5.0% in October, but above forecasts and the preliminary reading of 4.6%. This higher annual figure was influenced by a stronger-than-expected increase in prices over the last month. The month-over-month inflation rate rose from 0.3% in October to 0.5% in November, while forecasts anticipated a rise of only 0.4 percentage points.
These figures may reinforce the stance of the Monetary Policy Council (RPP), where Chairman Adam Glapiński indicated that inflation could remain elevated for longer than previously expected. Discussions about potential rate cuts are unlikely to begin until the second half of next year, with actual rate cuts possibly delayed until early 2026.
Currently, many market participants remain skeptical of these projections. However, if future inflation readings continue to exceed forecasts, the timeline for interest rate cuts—previously expected between the first and second quarters of 2025—may indeed be pushed back.
Author: Piotr Bawolski, Director of Strategic Clients, CFA, Michael / Ström Brokerage House
Source: CEO.com.pl
