By February 2025, UN member states are expected to submit new climate action pledges for the post-2030 period. Experts emphasize that these pledges need to set ambitious targets, especially for emission reductions, to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. However, the challenge remains that even the current commitments for the coming years are being implemented too slowly, as evidenced by the continued rise in global CO₂ emissions.
The Polish Ministry of Climate and Environment, in a summary statement of the COP29 International Climate Conference in Baku, noted that one of its key achievements was the establishment of a new global climate finance target. Developed countries pledged to allocate at least $300 billion annually by 2035 to support climate action in developing countries.
“This represents a threefold increase from the previous commitments made by developed countries. Unfortunately, no one was particularly satisfied with this. While this is a significant sum for developed countries, it falls short for developing countries, which estimate they need $1.3 trillion annually for climate action and greenhouse gas emission reductions,” says Robert Jeszke, Deputy Director for Emission Management at the Institute of Environmental Protection – National Research Institute (IOŚ-PIB), who attended the climate conference in Baku.
Mobilizing Climate Funds: $1.3 Trillion by 2035
During COP29, a call was made to mobilize $1.3 trillion for climate goals by 2035. A central element of this initiative is the Baku–Belém Roadmap, outlining actions to mobilize financing for developing countries, including grants and debt-free financial instruments.
In Baku, further details were provided on the mechanism for carbon credits, which involves trading emission reduction units generated by, for example, the development of renewable energy. This mechanism aims to support climate goals, particularly in developing countries. After years of negotiations, UN member states finalized guidelines for operationalizing market mechanisms under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, establishing rules for international cooperation on greenhouse gas emission reductions.
“Decisions were made that enable the development of global emission trading systems. The use of offset units was also approved, allowing countries to compensate for their emission reductions or commitments using reductions from other countries,” explains Robert Jeszke. “Compared to the previous Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) under the Kyoto Protocol, transferring emission reduction units between countries under Article 6 means that the selling country must deduct these reductions from its emission limit, and only the buying country can use these units. This rule prevents double counting of the same reductions by both countries and applies to both offset programs and linking separate emission trading systems.”
Growing Global Energy Demand
According to McKinsey’s Global Energy Perspective 2024 report, global energy demand is expected to rise by 11% to 18% by 2025, depending on the scenario. Most of this increase will come from emerging economies, where growing populations and an expanding middle class drive higher energy consumption.
“As global societies become wealthier, they can afford more energy-consuming devices, which increases energy demand. Developing countries lack access to new technologies that can meet this demand with low-emission energy. Therefore, emissions in these countries continue to rise. Technology transfer, particularly low- or zero-emission technologies, is crucial for developing countries that currently cannot afford them. These countries rely on traditional fossil fuel-based technologies because they remain the cheapest globally,” explains the IOŚ-PIB representative.
The Role of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)
The Paris Agreement obliges each country to outline and communicate its climate actions post-2020. Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are at the heart of the agreement, specifying each country’s efforts to reduce emissions and adapt to climate change.
“These commitments primarily focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, but they also include targets related to financing, improving energy efficiency, and increasing the share of renewable energy. These commitments are crucial for achieving the Paris Agreement goals. By February 2025, countries must present their new commitments for the post-2030 period. Given the current pace of implementing commitments for 2030, progress is too slow,” assesses Robert Jeszke.
COP29 Commitments to Emission Reduction
At COP29, significant commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions were made. The Climate Coalition reported that additional developing countries, such as Costa Rica and Senegal, pledged to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. The United Kingdom announced a new target to reduce emissions by 81% by 2035, while Brazil set a goal to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 59–67% by 2035.
“Based on the NDCs submitted by countries party to the Paris Agreement, we are still not on track to achieve the necessary levels of emission reductions to stabilize the global climate system. Greater ambition and a faster pace of transformation and decarbonization are required,” says Robert Jeszke.
Global Emissions Continue to Rise
Since the Paris Agreement was established at COP21 in 2015, aiming to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C by the end of the century, global greenhouse gas emissions have increased by nearly 6%. In 2023, global greenhouse gas emissions reached 57.1 Gt CO₂ equivalent, a 1.3% increase from the previous year, according to the UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2024. To limit temperature rise to 1.5°C, global emissions must drop by 42% by 2030 and 57% by 2035 compared to 2019 levels. However, even full implementation of current commitments would limit temperature rise to only 2.6–2.8°C.
“Globally, there is increasing interest in climate policy and the changes occurring worldwide, which raises public awareness. Climate policy now involves not only UNFCCC member states but also businesses, industries, and the banking and financial sectors. However, actual emission reduction efforts by countries are still insufficient, and global emissions continue to rise,” says the expert.
Clean Energy Investment Trends
The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) World Energy Investment report indicates that global investments in clean energy are now nearly double those in fossil fuels. In many countries, solar and onshore wind energy are already more cost-competitive than fossil fuels. The Climate Opinion Research Exchange (CORE) study shows that 80% of investors worldwide expect to increase investments in renewable energy over the next three years. Similarly, 80% believe the fossil fuel sector will become unattractive beyond the next five years.
“One significant question mark is the climate policy direction of the United States. Donald Trump has announced plans to withdraw from the Paris Agreement. Given that the U.S. is a major economy with high emissions and significant potential for technology transfer to developing countries, global actions could be undermined or become less effective. Other countries would need to take on the emission reduction targets previously met by the United States,” concludes Robert Jeszke.
