According to the latest report, “The Warehouse and Industrial Market in Poland”, published by consulting firm Newmark Polska, less than 2 million sq m of new warehouse and industrial space was under construction in Q3 2024. With relatively stable tenant activity, this led to a gradual quarter-on-quarter decline in the vacancy rate, which stood at 8.0% at the end of September. Forecasts suggest that the vacancy rate will continue to compress in 2025. Energy-efficient, sustainable, and technologically advanced warehouses remain the most sought-after by tenants.
At the end of Q3 2024, the total stock of modern warehouse and industrial space in Poland approached 34 million sq m, marking a 9.3% increase compared to the same period last year.
New supply since the beginning of the year exceeded 2.09 million sq m, a decrease of 33% compared to the first nine months of 2023. In Q3 2024, developers delivered only 454,400 sq m to the market — nearly 14% less than in the same period last year and 42.2% less than in Q2 2024. According to Newmark Polska’s forecast, the warehouse and industrial market in Poland will expand by 3-3.5 million sq m this year.
“At the end of September 2024, a little over 1.94 million sq m of warehouse and industrial space was under construction, 2.1% less than in Q2 2024 and over 22% less than a year ago. Most new warehouses are consistently being built in the six largest markets in the country, accounting for almost 85% of ongoing projects. These markets include Mazovia, Upper Silesia, Central Poland, Lower Silesia, Greater Poland, and the Tri-City. Notably, developers significantly increased their activity in the West Pomeranian Voivodeship in Q3, where projects totaling nearly 115,000 sq m are underway — the highest volume since Q2 2022,” says Jakub Kurek, Director of the Industrial and Warehouse Space Department at Newmark Polska.
After a marked rebound in leasing activity in Q2 2024, when tenants leased over 1.72 million sq m, Q3 saw a slight slowdown. Total demand in Q3 2024 reached nearly 1.14 million sq m, representing a 34% quarter-on-quarter decline and a 24% year-on-year drop. Between January and September 2024, tenants signed lease agreements totaling over 3.81 million sq m — a 2.8% increase compared to last year.
“In the transaction structure for the first three quarters of 2024, new lease agreements, including BTS (Built-to-Suit) projects, dominated at 55%. Renegotiations accounted for 38% of total demand, with the remaining 7% attributed to expansions. Additionally, tenants leased a total of 195,300 sq m through short-term contracts (up to one year),” adds Jakub Kurek.
Q2 2024 not only recorded the highest demand of the year but also featured the largest transactions completed between January and September. These included the lease of 126,000 sq m at Panattoni Park Wrocław Logistics South Hub by a confidential e-commerce tenant, and a BTS lease agreement for nearly 104,000 sq m signed by LPP Logistics at the Bydgoszcz Białe Błota Logistics Centre.
At the end of September 2024, the vacancy rate in total stock stood at 8.0%, a 0.3 percentage point decrease quarter-on-quarter and a 0.2 percentage point increase year-on-year. Despite a slight reduction of available space in existing buildings — by nearly 65,000 sq m compared to Q2 2024 — tenants had access to over 2.73 million sq m at the end of Q3, marking the third-highest result in Poland’s warehouse market history. Available space in buildings under construction amounted to just under 910,000 sq m.
“Between June and September 2024, rents for prime warehouse and industrial spaces in Poland’s main markets remained relatively stable for another quarter. In locations with higher vacancy rates, tenants currently have greater opportunities to negotiate lower rents or attractive incentive packages. In contrast, developers are less willing to make concessions for warehouses offering high technical standards, energy efficiency, and sustainability solutions. At the end of September 2024, the highest rents were recorded in Warsaw (Zone I), as well as in the Pomeranian and Lesser Poland Voivodeships,” says Agnieszka Giermakowska, Director of Market Research and Advisory, ESG Lead, Newmark Polska.
