After the U.S. elections, relations between the USA and China will remain tense and continue to impact global trade.
- A new phase of the trade war, although “under control,” could reduce nominal global trade growth, which is expected to drop below 5% year-on-year in 2026 (-0.6 percentage points). In 2025-2026, exports from Europe and China worth $67 billion (half of the global sum) are at risk.
- The ongoing trade war with China is more costly for Europe than for the USA: tariffs on Chinese imports have cost the EU $38 billion annually, compared to $17 billion annually for the USA.
- Effects of the ongoing superpower confrontation include global trade polarization and even deglobalization: bilateral trade flows between geopolitically aligned countries have risen by $620 billion over the last two years and now account for 60% of global trade.
- Next-generation trade hubs are expected to increase their share of global exports by +1.6 percentage points over the next five years, reaching $1.274 trillion.
- Poland is among the top ten new global trade hubs, thanks to significant infrastructure investments over the past two decades and the potential and efficiency of its economy. Poland stands out for the balanced development of all these attributes, which is unparalleled among the world’s leading next-generation trade hubs.
Although global trade remains strongly linked to the U.S. economy, China has emerged as a new superpower, leveraging its critical role in global production and a massive and continuously growing domestic market. In this context, the intensifying tensions between the United States and China are reshaping global supply chains and paving the way for new trade powers, according to new research by Allianz Trade, a global leader in trade credit insurance.
Poland: A Future Trade Hub
The most prominent emerging trade hub in Central Europe is Hungary, attracting substantial investments, including from China. The next candidate in the region for a next-generation trade hub is Romania, which is growing at an impressive rate. Both countries have strong infrastructure and good connections to global supply chains. Additionally, Poland ranks high, closing the top ten list of next-generation trade hubs identified by Allianz Trade.
Sławomir Bąk, a member of the Management Board of Allianz Trade in Poland responsible for risk assessment, commented on Poland’s role in global trade:
“What stands out in Poland’s case is the uniformly high position of all the country’s attributes—connections, trade potential, and efficiency—unmatched by other countries. Excellent connections result from investments in ports, roads, and gradually, railways. These strategic investments by successive governments may not have always proceeded smoothly, but most importantly, they were completed on time. This timing aligns with the new architecture of global trade (and geopolitics), as well as the needs of the Polish economy and exporters. Over two decades in the EU, Polish exporters have increasingly sought opportunities further afield. At the same time, good transport connections remain an asset in expanding effectively into neighboring markets. While appreciating the strengths of our regional partners (such as Hungary and Romania), Poland, with its larger market and economy, holds an edge in productivity despite recent declines.”
Trade War Under Trump’s Second Term
During his second term as U.S. President, Donald Trump is likely to increase tariffs on imports from China and other strategic countries (to 25% for the former and 5% for the rest of the world, excluding Mexico and Canada). This could reduce nominal global trade growth by -0.6 percentage points in 2026, as most new measures would come into effect in the second half of 2025. The majority of costs from these expected U.S. regulations would fall on China and the EU—putting $67 billion worth of exports at risk between 2025 and 2026, particularly in sectors such as automotive, transportation equipment, and metal products. Retaliatory measures would likely target U.S. goods, including pharmaceuticals, automotive, metal products, agriculture, and machinery.
Ana Boata, Head of Economic Research at Allianz Trade, elaborates:
“In the case of a full-scale trade war—with expected 60% tariffs on Chinese goods and 10% on the rest of the world, including Mexico and Canada—the costs of these regulations would increase nominal global trade growth losses to 2.4 percentage points. Apart from China, Mexico and Canada would be among the most affected countries. Cumulative export losses under this scenario would total nearly $217 billion between 2025 and 2026. However, this scenario seems unlikely, as the United States would also face significant costs.”
The “Godfather” vs. the “Silk Road”
Global trade is increasingly shaped by competing geoeconomic agendas of the USA and China. Imports from the U.S. are no longer as crucial to China, while China exports more to its geopolitically aligned partners, such as Russia, Singapore, Vietnam, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia. Bilateral trade flows between geopolitically aligned countries increased by 2 percentage points (+$620 billion) to 60% of global trade within two years.
“China’s ‘Silk Road’ doctrine focuses on trade and industry, emphasizing soft power and influence, while the U.S. ‘Godfather’ model is based on four pillars: (i) unwavering commitment to defending core national interests at any cost, (ii) ensuring loyalty within historical alliance networks, (iii) an active economic and military stance against rivals, and (iv) expanding American influence and control in new domains such as space, technology, and AI. Regardless of who wins the U.S. elections, this confrontation is inevitable,” explains Ano Kuhanathan, Head of Corporate Research at Allianz Trade.
Adjusting to the U.S. is Costly for the EU
While the U.S. and the EU align on geopolitical issues, their economic interests diverge. According to Allianz Trade, the EU tends to follow the U.S. lead in imposing tariffs on China, usually within a year, even though the EU pays a higher price. Tariffs already imposed on China cost the U.S. $17 billion annually (4% of Chinese imports), compared to $38 billion annually for the EU (6.4% of Chinese imports). Moreover, the EU remains vulnerable to U.S. protectionist measures and faces the risk of “divide and conquer” strategies by either the U.S. or China, exploiting internal European divisions to negotiate bilateral agreements that strengthen their respective positions against the EU.
Source: https://ceo.com.pl/globalne-napiecia-handlowe-usa-chiny-polska-wyrasta-na-jedno-z-kluczowych-centrow-handlowych-przyszlosci-74189
