In the first three quarters of 2024, 192,000 children were born in Poland. This is the lowest number since World War II ended. The fertility rate has dropped to a dangerously low level, and fewer and fewer people are deciding to expand their families. Many barriers involve financial issues, such as difficult housing situations, labor market conditions including the hiring of young adults on fixed-term contracts, and also differences in the education level of women and men.
The report by the Central Statistical Office of Poland titled “The socio-economic situation of the country in the first to third quarter of 2024” reveals that by the end of September, 192,000 children were born in Poland, approx. 18,000 fewer than the previous year. It is estimated that for every 10,000 people there was a decrease of 39 individuals (compared to 32 the previous year). The natural growth rate has been negative for the past decade. Based on trends over the last 30 years, the institution describes the population situation in the country as challenging and predicts that it is unlikely to expect significant changes that would guarantee stable demographic development.
“We see very rapid demographic ageing in Poland, i.e., the proportion of older people is increasing, and the proportion of people in the working age is declining. This is the result of a very low birth rate since the 1990s, and currently, older people, those born in the post-war baby boom, are retiring,” says Mateusz Łakomy, a demographer, author of the book “Demography is the Future”.
The fertility rate is a measure indicating the average number of children a woman would give birth to in her entire reproductive period. To ensure a stable demographic development of the country, 210-215 children should be born annually to every 100 women aged 15-49. In Poland, it’s 115.8, while in the 1990s, it was 199.
In his book, Mateusz Łakomy points out the ten main barriers to increasing birth rates in Poland.
“First and foremost, we need to pay attention to an unobvious matter: the difference in education between women and men, and at the level of secondary or primary school – in the education of girls and boys,” the expert notes.
According to Mateusz Łakomy, in Poland, a high percentage (40%) of people aged 20-39 are not in a relationship. The establishment of a stable relationship, and then its transition into marriage, is generally a prerequisite for having the first and subsequent children. People enter into relationships based on similarities in many dimensions, especially social status, whose main source is education. However, in Poland, 50% of women and only 30% of men aged 25-34 have higher education, so there is a significant imbalance to the disadvantage of men, among the highest in Europe. A second important factor encouraging marriage is having a permanent job, which is also helped by higher education.
Differences in education levels mean that graduates of different education levels often don’t find each other sufficiently attractive, in terms of quality features, to form a relationship.
“The current situation, where about half of the younger women and only 30% of men have higher education, means that some of these women will never be able to find a suitable partner, a husband candidate, the father of their children. And vice versa – men who have secondary or vocational education won’t find a mother for their children,” explains the demographer.
The overuse of fixed-term contracts for young adults also has negative consequences for fertility. Currently, even half of adults aged 20-24 work on fixed-term contracts, and in the group aged 25-29, the percentage is close to 30%. The percentage of young adults employed on a temporary basis in Poland is one of the highest in Europe, and the percentage of contracts that become permanent is among the lowest.
“The temporary contract implies that we do not know when it will end, whether it will be extended, whether we will get another job, or move to a full-time contract. A child is a years-long commitment and is associated with specific costs, so without a sense of security, we postpone childbirth, and often we renounce it,” assesses Mateusz Łakomy.
Another barrier is a low availability of part-time jobs. They are performed by 10% of mothers of children aged 1-2. Thus, Poland is placed at the end of the list of European countries.
“To decide to have the first child, a full-time job is needed, mainly because it results in higher wages, and the maternity allowance is calculated from these wages. On the other hand, part-time work is conducive to second, third, fourth children, because it allows combining care with professional work, i.e., being present in all these worlds,” explains Mateusz Łakomy.
The decision to have a baby is also influenced by the level of earnings, although – as the expert emphasizes – not necessarily in the case of the first offspring. Here, stability and predictability of income are much more important.
“In the case of a second child, a certain level of income begins to matter, and this is particularly significant for families who would like to have many children,” notes the demographer.
The condition for the decision about the first child may also be having a flat. In the case of wanting to expand the family with a second child, the importance of apartment size grows, and if it is too small in the current premises, it is indicated as a significant barrier. As the expert emphasizes, to have three or more children – which is the ideal of every fourth Pole aged 18-40 – it is best to live not in an apartment block, but in a house.
Among the barriers to increasing birth rates, the expert also lists those unrelated to the financial situation. These include social ones, i.e., the lack of deep relationships in families, excessive use of the internet and smartphones, secularization, and medical reasons such as infertility, cesarean sections without medical indications, and endometriosis.
According to the expert, the diversity of these barriers makes it difficult to coordinate the fight against them at the state level. The specific issues fall under the competence of different departments. However, considering the ongoing changes, addressing the issue is urgently needed.
“Equalizing the level of education and educational outcomes would result in a higher birth rate over time, including increasing the number of places in studies preferred by men,” indicates Mateusz Łakomy. “These are also issues related to the labor market, universalizing permanent contracts, so that as many young adults as possible have a sense of employment stability. This requires dialogue, certain understanding of the social side, the business side, public administration. In Western European countries, this works, and there are solutions that can inspire.”
According to the report “Barriers to Procreative Intentions,” published in 2023 by the Public Opinion Research Center, 8% of Poles aged 18-40 do not want to have children. Almost half of the study group would like to have two children, 18% – three, and another 5% – four or more. Every ninth person declared that they want only one child. Among those surveyed aged 18-40, more than half do not have children (57%), similar groups of respondents have one (17%) or two children (19%), and a relatively few have three or more (6%).
